MIIF Predicts Strong GSE Performance amid Global Drivers
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Ghana’s equity market is poised for a strong performance in 2026, buoyed by easing macroeconomic conditions, improving corporate profitability and supportive global developments, according to the Economic and Market Outlook and Strategic Investment Orientation for 2026 report published by the Minerals Income and Investment Fund (MIIF).
The report projects a bullish outlook for the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE), with both the broader market and financial stocks expected to deliver exceptional returns. “The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) is projected to return approximately 81 per cent, supported largely by commodity-linked equities, while the GSE Financial Stock Index (GSE-FSI) is forecast to deliver returns of about 95 per cent over the same period,” MIIF stated.
Analysts attribute the optimistic outlook to a combination of declining interest rates, easing inflationary pressures and a gradual recovery in corporate earnings. With yields on fixed-income instruments expected to moderate further, equities are projected to become increasingly attractive to investors seeking higher returns. As a result, trading activity is expected to intensify, particularly in ICT, food and beverages, and financial stocks, which are forecast to dominate both volumes and values on the market.
MIIF further notes that improving macroeconomic stability is reinforcing investor confidence. “The combination of declining interest rates and inflation, improving corporate profitability, sustained investment in artificial intelligence, and continued economic expansion presents favourable conditions for equity market appreciation in 2026,” the report said. The growing adoption of digital technologies and AI across sectors is also expected to enhance productivity and earnings prospects for listed firms.
On the domestic financing front, the report highlights that government faces a projected financing gap of about GH¢34.4 billion in the 2026 budget, which is expected to be financed largely from domestic sources. To meet these needs, authorities are expected to continue weekly Treasury bill auctions alongside plans to issue about GH¢10 billion in infrastructure bonds. While these measures could deepen the domestic capital market, MIIF cautions that increased government borrowing may influence liquidity conditions and investor portfolio choices.
In addition, rising corporate demand for foreign exchange, particularly under the government’s “Big Push” infrastructure initiative, could exert pressure on the cedi, with potential implications for import-dependent companies and profit margins. Nonetheless, the report suggests that improved macroeconomic coordination could help manage these pressures.
Global developments are also shaping the outlook for Ghana’s capital market. MIIF points to ongoing negotiations between global mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore over a potential $200 billion merger as a key development influencing commodity-linked equities. “Global mining markets are bracing up for the fallouts of a potential $200 billion merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore,” the report noted.
While the proposed deal could face regulatory scrutiny, particularly in China over market dominance concerns in copper and iron ore, MIIF observes that rising precious metal prices, declining ore grades and increasing extraction complexities are compelling mining firms to innovate and optimise operations. These global dynamics are expected to support commodity prices, with positive spillovers for mining-related stocks on the GSE.
Overall, MIIF concludes that 2026 presents a dynamic investment environment shaped by both domestic and global drivers. A buoyant stock market, strategic infrastructure investments and favourable global commodity trends are expected to create attractive opportunities for investors positioning their portfolios for growth.
