Deloitte Predicts 5.9% Growth Rate for Ghana in 2026
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Professional services firm Deloitte has projected that Ghana’s economy will grow by 5.9 per cent in 2026, up from an estimated 5.5 per cent in 2025, signalling cautious optimism about the country’s medium-term growth prospects amid ongoing reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions.
The projection is contained in Deloitte’s Global Economic Outlook 2026, which assesses growth trajectories across key emerging and developed markets. In contrast to Ghana’s improving outlook, Deloitte forecasts that Nigeria’s economy will grow by an unchanged 4.1 per cent in 2026, reflecting persistent structural and macroeconomic challenges in Africa’s largest economy.
According to Deloitte, Ghana’s anticipated growth will be driven largely by stronger export performance, supported by increased output from the Bibiani gold mine in Western Ghana, as well as the impact of ongoing government initiatives aimed at boosting productivity and export capacity. These include the 24-hour Economy Programme and the Accelerated Export Development Programme, both of which are expected to support industrial activity, logistics, and value addition across key sectors.
However, the firm cautioned that the growth outlook is not without risks. It noted that fluctuations in cocoa production, driven by climate-related shocks, the spread of the cocoa swollen shoot virus, and smuggling activities, could undermine export revenues. In addition, volatility in global commodity prices poses downside risks to fiscal revenues, foreign exchange inflows, and overall economic stability.
Ghana’s recent growth performance has been relatively strong. The economy recorded real GDP growth of 6.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, with expansion driven primarily by the Fishing sector, which grew by 16.4 per cent. This was followed by Information and Communication Technology (ICT) at 13.1 per cent, and Finance and Insurance, which expanded by 9.3 per cent, underscoring the growing role of services in driving economic activity.
On inflation, Deloitte highlighted Ghana’s return to single-digit inflation, with the rate easing to 6.3 per cent as of November 2025, after nearly four years in double digits. This disinflation, the firm said, was driven by a stronger cedi, falling non-food prices, and easing supply-side pressures. Nonetheless, Deloitte warned that risks remain, particularly from potential upward adjustments in utility tariffs, including electricity and water, as well as persistently high domestic food prices.
BoG and Interest Rates
Deloitte also reviewed recent monetary policy developments, noting that the Bank of Ghana resumed easing interest rates in 2025, implementing a cumulative 1,000-basis-point cut to the monetary policy rate. Looking ahead, the firm projects further gradual rate cuts, with the policy rate expected to decline toward 17 per cent by the end of 2026.
While these reductions are likely to ease financing constraints, stimulate credit growth, and support domestic demand, Deloitte cautioned that excessive monetary easing could jeopardise the gains made in inflation control, especially if fiscal and external pressures resurface.
Cedi Performance
On the exchange rate, Deloitte noted that the cedi strengthened by more than 40 per cent in the first nine months of 2025, averaging around GH¢13 per US dollar in the retail market. This performance was attributed to higher gold revenues, frequent Bank of Ghana interventions, successful debt restructuring, and policy initiatives such as the Ghana Gold Board.
Based on these trends, Deloitte projected an average exchange rate of GH¢13.01 per US dollar in 2026. However, it cautioned that renewed monetary easing or a decline in global gold demand, particularly if global uncertainty subsides, could reverse some of the recent gains in the currency’s performance.
