Natural Gas, Lithium Lead Commodity Gains as Global Markets Diverge — Afreximbank
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Commodity markets continued to show marked divergences in the final quarter of 2025, with Afreximbank reporting strong rallies in natural gas, lithium, soybeans, aluminium, and crude oil, even as cocoa, palm oil, platinum, sugar, and silver experienced significant declines. The mixed performance highlights the complex interplay of supply constraints, shifting demand patterns, and geopolitical disruptions shaping global trade flows.
According to Afreximbank’s November Commodity Market Insights, natural gas emerged as the top performer for the month, supported by rising heating demand and winter supply concerns. Benchmark U.S. futures averaged about $3.57/mmBtu in 2025, up from $2.47 in 2024. Persistent attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea forced LNG carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, extending shipping times and increasing transport costs. These supply-side pressures combined with seasonal demand spikes to lift natural gas prices significantly.
Lithium also posted notable gains as supply reductions by major producers narrowed the oversupply that had weighed on the market earlier in the year. The CME lithium carbonate contract surged following temporary mine suspensions in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, while spodumene prices recovered from mid-year lows. Afreximbank noted that demand remains anchored in the electric vehicle sector, which accounted for over 50% of global lithium consumption in 2024 and is projected to reach 75% by 2030, underscoring long-term structural demand for the metal.
Agricultural markets were similarly mixed. Soybean prices climbed on worsening weather conditions in South America, coupled with stronger Chinese imports. China’s renewed commitment to purchase at least 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in late 2025, and a minimum of 25 million tonnes annually from 2026 to 2028, further supported market sentiment. Meanwhile, aluminium prices strengthened on continued supply constraints and robust demand from the construction and automotive sectors. Futures in Europe approached three-year highs amid energy-related disruptions, regulatory hurdles in Indonesia, and production challenges in Iceland and Australia.
Crude oil stabilised around $60 per barrel, supported by supply concerns following drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and uncertainty surrounding U.S. sanctions.
On the other hand, several commodities experienced sharp corrections. Cocoa fell to about $5,200 per tonne as improved crop prospects in West Africa eased earlier fears of severe supply shortages. Palm oil weakened on sluggish import demand from India and China amid higher-than-expected Southeast Asian output. Platinum, sugar, and silver also declined, pressured by weaker industrial demand, favourable weather conditions, and profit-taking after previous rallies.
Afreximbank noted that the diverging performance reflects the increasingly uneven nature of global commodity markets heading into 2026. Commodities tied to electrification and structural long-term demand, including critical minerals like lithium, remain resilient, while markets facing oversupply or muted consumption are likely to continue experiencing downward pressure.
