Cedi to weaken slightly but end 2025 stronger against dollar – Fitch Solutions
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
The Ghana cedi is projected to experience a mild weakening against the US dollar in the final quarter of 2025 before closing the year stronger overall, according to Fitch Solutions’ latest Sub-Saharan Africa Forex Outlook. The research and analytics firm noted that while short-term pressures could slow the currency’s momentum, the cedi is on track to end 2025 as one of Africa’s best-performing currencies.
The report highlighted that the local currency has appreciated by more than 29% on the retail market since the beginning of the year, a historic rally that positions it for its first-ever annual appreciation against the dollar. Currently, the cedi trades at around GH¢12.00 to the dollar at forex bureaus and GH¢10.92 on the interbank market.
Fitch Solutions stated, “We expect most major Sub-Saharan African currencies to remain broadly stable through quarter 4, 2025, and into 2026, extending the calm observed year-to-date. Indeed, we anticipate only a slight weakening of the Ghana cedi, Zambia kwacha, Nigeria naira, and South Africa rand by the end of 2025.”
The firm projects an approximate 8% depreciation of the cedi against the US dollar over the course of 2026, bringing the exchange rate to around GH¢11.70 on the interbank market by year-end. However, this predicted dip is expected to be modest compared to the extreme volatility experienced during 2023 and early 2024.
“While modest depreciation against the US dollar is likely in the coming quarters, currencies will remain far more stable than during the volatility experienced in 2023 and 2024,” Fitch Solutions noted. The report attributed this relative stability to stronger external positions, improved fiscal management, and resilient commodity prices across several Sub-Saharan African economies.
In Ghana’s case, Fitch Solutions said the outlook is supported by a combination of factors, including robust gold export revenues, strong foreign exchange reserves, and consistent intervention by the Bank of Ghana to smooth volatility in the market. The continued inflow of remittances and foreign investment in mining and infrastructure projects is also expected to underpin the cedi’s resilience.
The firm also forecasted that global conditions will favor emerging market currencies in 2025. It cited an expected period of softness in the US dollar, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical uncertainty that is keeping gold prices elevated. These dynamics, the report said, will add “tailwinds” to the cedi and other African currencies.
However, Fitch cautioned that the central bank is likely to intervene periodically to prevent the cedi from appreciating too sharply, as prolonged currency strength could erode Ghana’s export competitiveness. “Stronger reserves from high gold revenues, Bank of Ghana intervention, and protecting export competitiveness will limit prolonged cedi gains,” it stated.
Overall, Fitch Solutions’ forecast paints a cautiously optimistic picture for the cedi’s trajectory, suggesting that Ghana’s currency has entered a new phase of stability and credibility, underpinned by improved macroeconomic management and market confidence.
