Tariff hike sparks no inflation but pressures businesses – IC Research
The recent 1.14 per cent increase in electricity tariffs will not exert upward pressure on inflation in the final quarter of the year, according to a new report by IC Research.
The firm explained that the favourable base effect in the months ahead, beginning September 2025, is expected to offset the modest adjustment in electricity costs, thereby easing fears of a broader inflationary surge.
However, the report noted that businesses in certain sectors will experience higher operational expenditure.
Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) firms and Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), which depend heavily on grid-powered electricity, are projected to see a modest uptick in costs.
The analysis pointed to TotalEnergies as an example of resilience, highlighting that its ongoing solarisation drive across service stations helped contain operational expenditure growth at 12.9 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, a rate that remained below average inflation.
In contrast, Fan Milk PLC continues to face steep cost challenges, with operational expenditure rising 44.2 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025.
IC Research warned that the latest tariff adjustment could compound these pressures in the quarters ahead.
On a policy level, the report described government’s renewed commitment to the quarterly adjustment formula as a positive step for the energy sector, noting that stakeholders see it as critical for achieving cost-reflective tariffs.
IC Research further observed improvements in payment discipline within the sector, particularly by the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG).
“The ECG has fully complied with the Cash Waterfall Mechanism agreed for paying service providers so far this year, partly due to the enforcement of a Treasury Single Account,” the report said.
Available data for July 2025 revealed that ECG met all disbursement obligations for Level A beneficiaries, comprising seven Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and two fuel suppliers, as well as Level B beneficiaries, which include state-owned energy entities.
The report also disclosed that between June and September 2025, the Ministry of Finance disbursed a total of USD682.31 million to support the energy sector.
This included USD94.04 million for liquid fuel, USD152.38 million for IPPs, and USD435.88 million for gas supplies and transportation services. According to IC Research, these developments indicate that while Ghana’s tariff adjustments may not fuel inflation, they are reshaping the cost structures of businesses, highlighting the growing importance of energy efficiency and renewable adoption strategies across industries.
