Bond Market Turnover Drops to GH¢2.38bn

By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi

Activity on Ghana’s secondary bond market slowed significantly over the past week, with total turnover declining by 18.16 percent week-on-week to GH¢2.38 billion, reflecting cautious investor sentiment ahead of a key monetary policy decision.

According to Databank Research, trading activity remained heavily concentrated in the short- to medium-term segment of the yield curve, as investors continued to position themselves conservatively.

Front-End Dominates Trading

Data from the week showed that the 2027–2030 maturities dominated market flows, accounting for 68.6 percent of total traded volumes at a weighted-average yield of 10.62 percent.

The 2031–2034 segment followed, capturing 31.36 percent of total activity, with trades executed at a weighted-average yield of 12.46 percent.

In contrast, activity at the long end of the curve remained almost negligible. The 2035–2038 tenors contributed just 0.04 percent of total turnover, with a weighted-average yield of 12.55 percent, underscoring weak investor appetite for longer-dated securities.

Investor Caution Ahead of MPC Decision

Market analysts attribute the decline in turnover to a cautious stance adopted by investors ahead of the upcoming decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), scheduled for Wednesday, March 18, 2026.

The MPC’s decision on the policy rate is expected to provide clearer direction for interest rates and bond yields, prompting many investors to hold back on major positions in the interim.

Databank Research noted that this wait-and-see approach is likely to keep secondary market activity relatively subdued in the near term.

Outlook: Gradual Recovery Expected

Despite the current slowdown, the outlook for the bond market remains cautiously optimistic.

“Beyond the meeting, we anticipate the easing cycle to continue gradually, which should support renewed demand for longer-dated bonds and encourage investors to extend duration along the curve,” the firm stated.

A gradual reduction in interest rates could make longer-term bonds more attractive, as investors seek to lock in higher yields before further declines.

Market Dynamics

The current trading pattern suggests that investors are prioritising liquidity and lower risk exposure, focusing on shorter- and medium-term instruments while avoiding the uncertainties associated with long-term bonds.

Analysts say a clearer policy direction from the central bank, combined with sustained macroeconomic stability, could help revive activity across the yield curve in the coming weeks.

For now, however, the bond market remains in a holding pattern, with investors closely watching policy signals before making longer-term commitments.