Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio expected to drop below 60% in 2025 – AfDB
Ghana’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to narrow slightly below the 60 percent mark by the end of 2025, according to the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) 2025 Economic Outlook report. The anticipated improvement marks a modest decline from the 61.8 percent recorded in 2024.
The AfDB’s outlook suggests that fiscal consolidation efforts and economic recovery measures are gradually restoring Ghana’s debt sustainability metrics. The Bank of Ghana, in its May 2025 Summary of Economic and Financial Data, had already estimated the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 55 percent, reflecting fluctuations during the first quarter of the year. The ratio stood at 53.7 percent in January and 54.9 percent in February.
Ghana’s total public debt was estimated at GH₵769.4 billion, equivalent to approximately US$49.5 billion.
On the broader African front, the AfDB noted that debt ratios in 15 out of the continent’s 54 economies are now below pre-pandemic levels. This improvement, the report explained, has been driven by aggressive fiscal consolidation strategies implemented to create room for investments in development priorities.
Among notable examples, Angola recorded the steepest decline in debt-to-GDP ratio in 2024—dropping by about 42.1 percentage points. São Tomé and Príncipe followed closely with a reduction of around 40 percentage points.
Despite these positive trends, the AfDB warned that debt-related risks remain a concern across the continent. Although the risk of a systemic debt crisis has largely been contained, the bank highlighted ongoing vulnerabilities related to external factors.
“These risks mainly stem from high global interest rates, at which most of Africa’s commercial debt was contracted, and exchange rate depreciations, which raise the cost of debt service,” the report stated.
The AfDB also pointed to persistent structural issues. Even with spending cuts in place, the primary fiscal deficit remains a key driver of public debt accumulation, along with rising interest payments and slow GDP growth in many African economies.
For Ghana, the forecasted dip in the debt-to-GDP ratio is viewed as a positive signal, but analysts caution that sustained progress will depend on continued fiscal discipline, prudent borrowing, and robust economic growth. The government has reiterated its commitment to managing public finances effectively, aiming to strike a balance between stabilizing debt and driving growth through strategic investments.
