Govt Raises 2026 Petroleum Revenue Target to $985m
Government has revised its 2026 petroleum revenue target upward to approximately US$1.5 billion, significantly higher than the initial projection of US$985 million contained in the 2026 Budget Statement and Economic Policy.
Finance Minister, Cassiel Ato Forson, disclosed the revised outlook during an interview with Bloomberg in London, attributing the increase to sustained gains in global crude oil prices driven largely by recent developments in the Middle East.
According to the Minister, the revised revenue estimates will be formally presented in the Mid-Year Budget Review scheduled for July 2026. He added that government will also use the review to unveil a new economic policy initiative aimed at supporting growth and strengthening fiscal performance.
The original petroleum revenue forecast of US$985 million was based on a benchmark crude oil price of US$76.22 per barrel, slightly higher than the US$74.70 per barrel assumption used in the 2025 Budget.
Presenting the 2026 Budget earlier this year, Dr. Forson indicated that projected petroleum receipts would comprise US$162 million from royalties, US$419.01 million from carried and participating interest, US$403.53 million from corporate income tax, and US$720,000 from surface rentals.
Under the initial allocation framework, government planned to channel US$556.6 million into the Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA) to support priority development programmes. A further US$238.6 million was earmarked for the Ghana Petroleum Funds, with US$167 million allocated to the Ghana Stabilisation Fund and US$71.6 million to the Ghana Heritage Fund.
The Finance Minister also disclosed that US$190.33 million of the projected petroleum revenue would be transferred to the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) to cover equity financing costs and its share of net carried and participating interest.
“US$190.33 million of what will be earned in 2026 will be ceded to GNPC for the Equity Financing Cost (US$149.98 million) and its share of the net Carried and Participating Interest (US$40.4 million),” he explained during the budget presentation.
Looking beyond 2026, the Minister projected petroleum revenues of US$1.08 billion in 2027, US$1.02 billion in 2028 and US$930 million in 2029, based on assumptions of relatively stable international oil prices over the medium term.
Dr. Forson stressed that prudent management of petroleum resources remains critical to the country’s development agenda.
“The careful management of petroleum revenues ensures we can fund key projects today while saving for the future,” he said, emphasizing government’s commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term economic stability.
Growth Outlook Improves
The Finance Minister also signalled a more optimistic outlook for the Ghanaian economy than originally projected in the 2026 Budget.
While the budget forecast real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 4.8 percent for the year, Dr. Forson now believes economic expansion could exceed 6 percent by the end of 2026.
According to him, recent developments within the oil and gas sector are expected to provide a significant boost to economic activity and national output.
“We have seen some interesting developments in the oil and gas sector; that will impact the GDP numbers at the end of this year,” he stated.
The Minister indicated that government will provide further details on both the revised petroleum revenue projections and the stronger growth outlook when it presents the Mid-Year Budget Review to Parliament in July.
The upward revision in petroleum revenue expectations is expected to strengthen government’s fiscal position and create additional room for investment in infrastructure, social programmes and economic transformation initiatives, provided the gains from higher oil prices are sustained through the remainder of the year.
