Gold Boom to Power Ghana’s Growth to 5.9% in 2026
Ghana’s economy is projected to expand by 5.9 per cent in 2026, its strongest growth performance in several years, driven by rising gold exports, increased public investment and a rebound in key extractive industries, according to the latest outlook from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).
The forecast points to a continued strengthening of the country’s economic recovery following years of macroeconomic instability marked by high inflation, currency depreciation and a painful debt restructuring programme.
Afreximbank expects economic growth to accelerate slightly from an estimated 5.8 per cent in 2025, supported by government infrastructure spending, increased mining activity and higher oil production. Central to this outlook is the implementation of President John Mahama’s Big Push infrastructure agenda, which is expected to stimulate investment and economic activity across several sectors.
The mining industry is anticipated to remain a major growth engine. New gold production from the Ahafo North mine, together with expanded operations at Bibiani, Chirano and Namdini, is expected to boost export receipts and strengthen foreign exchange inflows. Oil output is also forecast to improve as drilling activities gather pace at the Jubilee Field.
The positive outlook represents a significant turnaround from recent economic challenges. Ghana’s growth slowed to 3.1 per cent in 2023 amid global economic disruptions linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tighter international financial conditions. Economic activity subsequently recovered, with growth reaching 5.7 per cent in 2024.
Inflationary pressures are also expected to ease further. Afreximbank projects inflation to decline to 7.3 per cent in 2026 from an estimated 14.6 per cent in 2025. This follows the sharp inflation surge that pushed consumer prices above 40 per cent in 2023.
The expected moderation in inflation is being attributed to a more stable cedi and lower import costs. However, the bank cautioned that any significant disruptions to global oil supplies could trigger higher fuel prices and create fresh inflationary pressures later in the year.
Monetary conditions have also improved considerably. The Bank of Ghana maintained its policy rate at 14 per cent in May after implementing cumulative rate reductions totalling 1,400 basis points since July 2025, reflecting growing confidence in the country’s disinflation path.
Ghana’s external sector is forecast to remain one of the strongest pillars of the recovery. The country’s trade surplus widened to an estimated US$9.3 billion in 2025, supported largely by strong gold and cocoa exports.
Foreign exchange reserves, excluding gold holdings, are projected to increase from US$13.8 billion in 2025 to US$14.6 billion in 2026, providing import cover of approximately five months. The cedi is also expected to strengthen further, with Afreximbank forecasting an exchange rate of around GH¢11 to the US dollar in 2026 compared with an estimated GH¢12.60 in 2025.
On the fiscal front, government finances are expected to remain relatively stable despite planned increases in public expenditure. The report projects the fiscal deficit to widen modestly to 2.6 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 from an estimated 0.6 per cent in 2025.
The increase in spending is largely linked to an ambitious infrastructure programme, with approximately GH¢30 billion expected to be invested in roads, bridges, ports and logistics facilities. According to Afreximbank, revenue from a new sliding-scale gold royalty regime could help offset part of the additional expenditure burden.
The report also points to continued progress in debt management. External debt is forecast to decline to US$33.3 billion in 2026, down from a peak of US$46.6 billion recorded in 2021. As a share of GDP, external debt is expected to fall to 21.3 per cent, compared with 45.1 per cent in 2024.
Despite the encouraging outlook, Afreximbank warned that significant risks remain. The bank noted that Ghana continues to face a high risk of debt distress, echoing concerns previously raised by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
According to the report, the country remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices, export earnings and fiscal performance. Access to international capital markets also remains limited, while the economy’s dependence on gold, cocoa and oil continues to expose it to external shocks.
Nevertheless, the improving macroeconomic environment is expected to create favourable conditions for businesses. Lower inflation, a stronger domestic currency and improving conditions within the banking sector are likely to support investment, reduce operating costs and strengthen business confidence in the year ahead.
