Rising Fuel Costs Threaten Inflation Outlook – Deloitte Warns
Rising fuel prices could undermine Ghana’s improving inflation outlook in 2026 as increasing energy costs begin filtering through the wider economy, according to the latest inflation outlook report released by Deloitte.
The report cautioned that sustained increases in global oil prices are likely to translate into higher domestic fuel prices, placing upward pressure on transportation costs, utilities and overall consumer prices.
According to Deloitte, the evolving price environment may compel the Bank of Ghana to adopt a more cautious approach to monetary policy easing despite recent improvements in inflation performance.
The report projected that inflationary pressures could gradually rebuild over the coming months, with both food and non-food components facing emerging risks.
Food inflation, which has moderated in recent periods, is expected to experience renewed pressure due to seasonal supply constraints. Deloitte noted that reduced availability of staple food crops including maize, rice and cassava could contribute to higher food prices in subsequent months.
The report further highlighted that non-food inflation is likely to edge upward as increases in housing costs, utility charges and transport expenses continue to feed into household expenditure.
It added that exchange-rate volatility remains another potential source of inflation risk, particularly for imported goods and service-related costs.
“The pressures from potential exchange rate volatility affecting imported goods and upward adjustments in service costs could also heighten inflationary pressures on this sub-index,” the report indicated.
Recent inflation data appears to support concerns of a possible shift in the disinflation trend.
Headline inflation increased marginally by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4 percent in April 2026, marking the first upward movement after fifteen consecutive months of declining inflation.
Month-on-month inflation also accelerated sharply to 1.0 percent from 0.1 percent recorded in March, representing the fastest monthly increase since February 2025.
Although food inflation continued to decline slightly to 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent in March, supported by improved domestic supply conditions and relative exchange-rate stability, non-food inflation moved higher.
Non-food inflation rose to 4.2 percent from 3.9 percent largely due to increased fuel prices and rising transport costs, alongside persistent structural pressures in housing and utilities.
Among expenditure categories, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels recorded the highest inflation rate at 12.48 percent, followed by Insurance and Financial Services at 7.9 percent, Education Services at 7.5 percent, Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 7.5 percent, and Recreation, Sports and Culture at 4.8 percent.
Deloitte said maintaining price stability will require careful coordination between monetary policy, energy market management and broader macroeconomic conditions as Ghana seeks to preserve recent gains in economic stability.
