Databank maintains 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.5%
Databank Research has maintained its end-year 2025 real GDP growth projection at 4.5 per cent ±100 basis points, citing steady expansion in industry and services despite seasonal headwinds in agriculture.
In its second half-year outlook, the investment research firm said increased infrastructure investment, particularly in roads, will underpin industrial activity.
“We expect stable agriculture output and moderate growth in services to support this outlook,” the report noted.
Databank, however, revised its second-quarter GDP growth forecast downward to 4.8 per cent from 5.6 per cent, reflecting seasonal declines in cocoa production and softer momentum in services.
Industry is expected to expand by 4.9 per cent in Q2, compared with 3.4 per cent in Q1, supported by strong gold exports and government funding for road infrastructure, which should help offset weaker oil and gas output.
The services sector is projected to grow by 6.1 per cent in Q2, slightly above the 5.9 per cent recorded in Q1, buoyed by easing cost pressures, softer interest rates and a stable cedi.
Databank highlighted that digital transformation initiatives are improving consumer spending, helping sustain growth in trade, information and communication, and financial services.
Agriculture is expected to grow 3.3 per cent in Q2, down sharply from 6.6 per cent in Q1, largely because of seasonal cocoa shortfalls.
However, Databank anticipates a rebound in Q3, supported by improved food supplies and government funding through the Agriculture for Economic Transformation Agenda programme.
Ghana’s real GDP, including oil, expanded 5.3 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 3.4 per cent in Q4 2024 and above the 4.9 per cent recorded in Q1 2024, reflecting continued resilience in key sectors.
