Private capital critical to Ghana’s next growth phase, KPMG says

Ghana’s ability to sustain its economic recovery and transition into a stronger growth phase will depend largely on its capacity to attract private capital to support investment in infrastructure and productive sectors, professional services firm KPMG has said.

In its assessment of the government’s 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review, KPMG noted that recent improvements in macroeconomic conditions have created an opportunity to restore investor confidence. However, it cautioned that maintaining the momentum will require policy certainty, fiscal discipline and deeper collaboration between the public and private sectors.

Kwame Sarpong Barnieh, Partner and Head of Advisory at KPMG, said the country’s next stage of development must focus on mobilising both domestic and international private investment to complement limited government resources.

“Ghana’s infrastructure development ambitions cannot be financed by public resources alone,” he said. “The restored macroeconomic stability presents an opportunity to rebuild investor confidence and mobilise domestic and international private capital toward productive sectors. This will require a predictable environment, transparent procurement, effective public-private partnerships and stronger governance.”

KPMG’s assessment comes at a time when the economy has recorded stronger-than-expected performance across key indicators. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 6.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing the government’s full-year growth target of 4.8 per cent. Non-oil GDP also expanded by 6.3 per cent, suggesting broader-based economic activity beyond the petroleum sector.

Inflationary pressures have also eased significantly, with consumer inflation standing at 5.3 per cent in June 2026. Although this represented an increase from the 3.2 per cent recorded in March, the rate remained within the government’s end-year target range of 6 per cent to 10 per cent.

Fiscal indicators showed further improvement, with the primary balance recording a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP, while the overall fiscal deficit on a commitment basis narrowed to 0.4 per cent of GDP. Both outcomes exceeded programme targets.

Ghana’s external position has strengthened as well, supported by improved trade performance, increased gold-related foreign exchange inflows, reserve accumulation and improved market confidence. Gross international reserves reached approximately five months of import cover, exceeding the minimum benchmark of three months.

According to KPMG, the improvement in macroeconomic conditions has helped reduce inflation expectations and created room for easier monetary conditions. The firm noted that average commercial bank lending rates had declined to 15.6 per cent in June 2026 from 27 per cent a year earlier.

However, it warned that lower lending rates alone may not automatically translate into increased private sector credit, as banks’ lending decisions will continue to depend on credit risks and the broader business environment.

KPMG emphasised that sustaining economic stability must remain a key priority for government, noting that recent gains must be strengthened to support long-term investment, productivity growth and employment creation.

The firm identified the need to maintain macroeconomic stability, improve productivity and job creation, mobilise private capital for economic transformation, and ensure that the gains from the recovery benefit a wider section of society through continued investment in healthcare, education, social protection and women’s economic empowerment.

While acknowledging Ghana’s improved debt position following the International Monetary Fund’s upgrade of the country’s debt status from “Unsustainable” to “Sustainable”, KPMG cautioned that debt repayment pressures are expected to increase from 2027 as obligations from the debt restructuring process begin to fall due.

The firm highlighted the expected GH¢111 billion domestic debt repayment peak in 2027 and 2028, noting that government’s efforts to build financial buffers will be important in protecting fiscal credibility.

As of July 2026, the Sinking Fund’s cedi account had accumulated GH¢15.6 billion, representing more than half of the government’s GH¢30 billion target for the year.

KPMG said the Debt Service Recovery Cedi Account, commonly known as the sinking fund, could play a significant role in managing future debt obligations if it is consistently funded, transparently administered and maintained as a ring-fenced financing mechanism.

The firm also described the successful completion of Ghana’s IMF Extended Credit Facility programme as a major milestone, adding that the proposed Policy Coordination Instrument could help maintain reform momentum in areas such as fiscal governance, debt sustainability, monetary policy, financial sector resilience and state-owned enterprise reforms.

Looking ahead, KPMG said programmes including the Big Push Infrastructure Programme, the 24-Hour Economy initiative, the Accelerated Export Development Programme, the Oil Palm Development Programme and Farmers’ Service Centres could help improve productivity, diversify the economy and generate employment.

However, it warned that global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, commodity price fluctuations and future domestic debt obligations remain potential risks to Ghana’s outlook.

“The progress recorded in the first half of 2026 provides a strong platform for the next phase of Ghana’s economic transformation. Sustaining these gains will depend on sound public financial management and collaboration between the public and private sectors. Ghana has made meaningful progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence. The focus now must be on translating these gains into improving productivity, stronger private sector investment and quality jobs,” Mr Barnieh said