Oil Output Decline Costs Ghana Billions
Ghana’s crude oil production has declined for six consecutive years, resulting in billions of dollars in lost revenue and raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the country’s petroleum sector, according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Security (IES).
The report, authored by Smith Prosper Boahene and Prince Lumor, describes the prolonged decline as a structural challenge driven by ageing oil fields, inadequate upstream investment and the absence of new petroleum agreements since 2018.
According to the analysis, Ghana’s crude oil production fell from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.30 million barrels in 2025, representing a decline of almost 48 percent. The Energy Commission projects output will fall further to 34.83 million barrels in 2026, extending the downward trend into a seventh consecutive year.
The report argues that the decline is not the result of a temporary market cycle but reflects deeper operational and policy weaknesses within the upstream petroleum industry.
The sustained fall in production has significantly affected government revenue. IES estimates that petroleum receipts declined by 43.27 percent, from US$1.36 billion in 2024 to US$770.27 million in 2025, largely due to lower production volumes and weaker international crude oil prices.
During the first half of 2025 alone, crude oil production fell by 26 percent year-on-year to 18.42 million barrels, while petroleum revenues dropped from US$840 million to US$370 million.
Using an illustrative scenario based on sustained investment and modest production growth, the report estimates Ghana forfeited more than US$16.5 billion in potential gross oil revenue between 2019 and 2025.
IES identified the natural depletion of mature oil fields, limited exploration activity, insufficient replacement reserves and the failure to sign new petroleum agreements over the past several years as the principal causes of the production decline.
Although the Jubilee Field remained Ghana’s largest oil-producing asset in 2025, producing 22.2 million barrels, it also experienced the sharpest decline after a planned maintenance shutdown affected production during part of the year.
The report noted that increased drilling under the Jubilee South East Project in 2024 demonstrated that targeted investment can slow production declines, reinforcing the need for renewed capital expenditure across the sector.
Beyond reduced export earnings, IES warned that declining crude oil production threatens domestic natural gas supplies used for thermal power generation, increasing Ghana’s reliance on imported fuels and exposing the economy to exchange rate pressures and global energy price volatility.
The report also highlighted falling revenues to the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), which have been compounded by the reduction in the corporation’s share of petroleum revenues from 30 percent to 15 percent.
To reverse the trend, government has announced measures to attract fresh investment into the upstream petroleum sector. These include securing more than US$3.5 billion in investment commitments, comprising a US$2 billion programme to drill 20 additional wells in the Jubilee and TEN fields and a US$1.5 billion Memorandum of Intent covering the Offshore Cape Three Points block.
