Fitch Predicts 5.0% Growth Rate for Ghana in 2026
International ratings agency Fitch has projected Ghana’s economic growth at 5.0 percent in 2026, marking a slowdown from the 5.9 percent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion recorded in 2025.
The forecast is contained in Fitch’s latest Sub-Saharan Africa outlook report, which highlights rising global risks, particularly the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as key factors shaping the region’s economic trajectory.
According to the report, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and its impact on global energy markets is expected to create new external pressures for oil-importing economies such as Ghana. These pressures include higher import costs for fuel and fertilizers, potential supply disruptions, and renewed inflationary pressures that could affect both households and businesses.
Fitch noted that Sub-Saharan African sovereigns are entering this period of global uncertainty from a relatively stronger position compared to previous shocks, such as the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. It explained that improvements in macroeconomic management, monetary policy discipline, and fiscal consolidation efforts have enhanced the region’s overall resilience.
However, the ratings agency warned that the current shock will test the depth and durability of these gains.
“Our baseline forecasts are for real GDP to grow in all Fitch-rated SSA sovereigns this year, with the median of 4% unchanged from 2025. But some oil importers are exposed to a supply shock, which may be exacerbated by efforts to prevent the full pass-through of international fuel price moves, incentivising speculative hoarding and artificially boosting demand,” the report stated.
Fitch further observed that inflationary pressures are rising across the region, although often from a relatively low base, supported in part by greater currency stability in several economies. It also noted that many central banks are now better positioned to respond to shocks, as most are operating with positive real interest rates despite recent policy easing.
On external stability, the report indicated that many Sub-Saharan African economies are in a stronger position than in 2022, with narrower current account deficits and improved foreign exchange reserve buffers, in some cases covering at least three months of external payments.
Fitch also pointed to increased exchange rate flexibility as a key factor strengthening resilience to external shocks, while noting that higher export commodity prices could partially offset rising energy import costs, depending on the structure of individual economies.
On the fiscal front, the agency acknowledged that revenue mobilisation efforts and subsidy reforms have improved public finances since 2022. However, it cautioned that political and social pressures continue to constrain fiscal adjustment in many countries, with governments often resorting to temporary measures to cushion the impact of rising energy prices.
Overall, Fitch maintained that while Ghana and its regional peers have strengthened their macroeconomic frameworks, the evolving global energy situation presents a renewed challenge to sustaining growth momentum into 2026.
