Ghana Can Hit 20% Debt-to-GDP by 2028 – Economist Predicts

By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi

Ghana could be on course for one of the most dramatic fiscal turnarounds in its recent history, potentially lowering its public debt to as low as 20% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2028, far outperforming the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 55% target. This is the bold projection of economist and lecturer at Academic City University, Dr. Paul Appiah-Konadu, who believes the country’s current trajectory of fiscal restraint could yield unprecedented results if maintained.

Speaking in an interview as part of discussions on the 2026 Budget, Dr. Appiah-Konadu said Ghana is beginning to experience the impact of tighter expenditure controls, reduced borrowing, and strict adherence to IMF program benchmarks. According to him, if this level of responsibility continues, the nation could surpass all expectations regarding debt sustainability.

“Hopefully, we will be able to ensure that fiscal discipline goes beyond the IMF. I have so much trust in this Minister of Finance and so far in this government to be responsible when the IMF leaves town beyond 2026,” he said, expressing strong confidence in the current economic management team.

His optimism rests heavily on the fiscal record of Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, whom he credits with demonstrating unusual consistency and restraint, traits he argues have restored credibility to Ghana’s fiscal framework. Dr. Appiah-Konadu said the real challenge will come after the IMF program ends in 2026, a period during which successive governments have historically loosened expenditure controls and reversed discipline-driven reforms.

“But if we carry on at the pace at which we are moving, I think by the time the term of this government ends in 2028, we’ll be able to bring public debt levels to below maybe 20% of GDP. It is possible if we continue moving at this pace and keep reducing the rate of borrowing; it is possible we can get there,” he added.

Ghana’s debt currently remains above safe thresholds despite significant restructuring efforts. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio surged beyond 90% during the 2022 economic crisis, prompting the government to enter an IMF-supported program aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability. Under this program, Ghana is required to slash its debt to 55% of GDP by 2028, a target many analysts consider ambitious but essential for long-term sustainability.

However, Dr. Appiah-Konadu argues that Ghana’s fiscal progress in the past two years signals a potential overperformance. He pointed to lower deficit levels, improved revenue administration, and declining reliance on domestic borrowing as early signs that the country is turning the corner.

If Ghana achieves even a fraction of his projection, the implications would be significant. A debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 20% would place Ghana among the lowest-debt economies globally, freeing up enormous fiscal space for development spending, infrastructure investment, and social programs. It would also reduce pressure on the cedi, lower inflation risks, and create room for commercial banks to extend more affordable credit to the private sector.

Such an outcome, he noted, would be “unprecedented in Ghana’s recent fiscal history,” and could place the country on a new growth trajectory driven by confidence, stability, and improved investor sentiment.

Still, Dr. Appiah-Konadu emphasised that this outlook is contingent on sustained discipline. Any deviation, especially after the IMF exits, could derail progress. His message: the opportunity is real, but the responsibility to seize it lies squarely with policymakers.

As debate continues over the 2026 Budget and Ghana’s medium-term recovery prospects, the economist’s projections add a new layer to the national conversation: not only can Ghana meet IMF targets, it might even exceed them by a historic margin.