Africa Risks 86 Million Tonne Fuel Shortfall by 2040
Africa is facing a looming fuel crisis, with the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) warning that the continent could suffer an 86 million tonne shortfall by 2040. In a report released Thursday, the AFC said the ongoing Iran war has exposed Africa’s vulnerability to global shipping chokepoints, leaving many countries dangerously dependent on external supply lines.
The report revealed that Africa imports more than 70 percent of its refined fuel and spends about $230 billion annually on essential goods such as food, plastics, steel, and fertiliser. Fuel imports are expected to rise steadily from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million tonnes by 2040. This shortfall is equal to nearly three of Nigeria’s giant Dangote refineries, which are Africa’s largest.
Speaking at the launch in Nairobi, AFC chief economist Rita Babihuga-Nsanze said the Middle East crisis has made the risks of dependence impossible to ignore. She explained that the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global fuel transport, has left East African countries facing critical shortages.
The AFC stressed that Hormuz is not the only chokepoint threatening Africa’s supply lines. Other global shipping routes remain vulnerable, making the continent’s reliance on imports a long-term risk. The institution warned that without new strategies, Africa’s energy security will remain fragile.
Kenyan President William Ruto, addressing the summit, said the war highlights Africa’s need to stop relying on outsiders. “Our ambitions will remain unrealised if we continue to depend on external capital whose primary interest is securing raw materials for their own industries,” he said. He added that Africa must stop exporting raw materials only to import finished products made from them, calling for stronger industrialisation across the continent.
The AFC concluded that fixing Africa’s energy shortfall requires new fuel hubs and better performance from existing assets. It urged governments and private investors to work together to build infrastructure that can withstand global shocks. Without urgent reforms, the continent risks deeper economic instability as demand rises and supply chains remain exposed.
Experts at the summit agreed that Africa must accelerate investment in refining capacity, renewable energy, and regional trade networks to reduce dependence on imports. They warned that failure to act could undermine growth, increase costs for households and businesses, and weaken Africa’s position in global markets.
