Focus on Funds Raised, not Targets — Analyst to Govt

Economic Analyst Emmanuel Boateng has called for a shift in how government borrowing performance is assessed, arguing that greater attention should be paid to actual funds raised rather than headline targets.

Speaking on Business Breakfast on ZED 101.9FM, Mr. Boateng said recurring patterns in government treasury operations suggest that targets often fail to reflect real market behaviour.

According to him, regardless of whether targets are increased or reduced, the amount raised tends to hover around a consistent threshold.

“The targets may change, but in the end, we are raising around the same amount,” he noted.

Mr. Boateng explained that this trend indicates that investor decisions are not necessarily influenced by government-set targets. Instead, investors are guided by their own expectations and market variables.

“Those who are investing are not looking at your target. They are looking at their own variables,” he said.

He further attributed the consistency in amounts raised to the rollover of existing investments, where investors reinvest maturing instruments rather than injecting entirely new funds into the market.

Mr. Boateng cautioned against overemphasis on whether government instruments are under-subscribed or oversubscribed, describing such metrics as potentially misleading.

He illustrated that a higher target, for instance GH₵10 billion, may appear significantly under-subscribed if only GH₵4 billion is raised. However, setting a lower target of GH₵4 billion and achieving it fully could create the impression of strong performance, despite the same underlying outcome.

“In the end, it’s not about whether you missed or exceeded your target. It’s about how much you were actually able to raise,” he stressed.

The analyst also pointed to prevailing macroeconomic conditions, including fluctuating interest rates, as key factors influencing investor behaviour. He noted that while investors may demand higher returns, government appears reluctant to increase interest rates, citing improvements in the broader economic environment.

Mr. Boateng urged authorities to rely more on historical data and realistic market expectations when setting targets, rather than focusing on optics.

“If they truly want to set a target, they already have the data to determine what the market can absorb,” he said.

He stressed that a more data-driven and performance-focused approach would provide a clearer picture of government borrowing efficiency and help build investor confidence in the long term.