Databank Projects Cedi to Depreciate by 7.2% in 2026
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Ghana’s local currency, the cedi, is expected to record a modest depreciation in 2026, with Databank Research forecasting a 7.20 percent year-end decline against the US dollar.
According to its 2026 Economic Outlook, the cedi is projected to trade at approximately GH¢12.85 to one US dollar by the end of the year, reflecting what analysts describe as a relatively stable trajectory compared to recent volatility.
The outlook is underpinned by a combination of domestic and external factors, including sustained foreign exchange inflows and ongoing economic reforms. Databank noted that the projection assumes no major systemic shocks, even as demand pressures persist from bulk importers, energy-related payments, and Ghana’s Eurobond obligations.
A key pillar supporting the cedi, the report highlighted, is expected inflows from Ghana’s gold purchase programme. It projected a conservative monthly inflow of about GH¢750 million from the Gold for Oil initiative, which is anticipated to boost reserves and help stabilise the currency market.
Analysts believe these gold-backed inflows will enhance the ability of the Bank of Ghana to manage exchange rate expectations and intervene effectively to smooth volatility.
Beyond domestic measures, the report pointed to continued support from multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Ghana’s macroeconomic outlook.
Databank also identified emerging global financial trends that could indirectly benefit the cedi. It observed a gradual shift by central banks away from heavy reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency, with countries such as China increasing their gold holdings amid global policy uncertainties.
This trend has sparked discussions around elevating gold’s status within the global financial system, including proposals to classify it as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA). While still considered a low-probability scenario in the near term, such a development could significantly reshape global reserve management and enhance gold’s role as a monetary asset.
“If implemented, this could reduce US dollar dominance and strengthen reserve buffers for gold-holding economies,” the report noted.
However, Databank cautioned that challenges such as price volatility, custody risks, and trust constraints continue to limit the pace of such reforms within blocs like BRICS.
Despite these uncertainties, the firm maintained a neutral-to-positive outlook for the cedi, supported by tighter foreign exchange regulations and improved reserve buffers.
Overall, the projection suggests that while the cedi may weaken moderately in 2026, prudent policy measures and sustained inflows could help contain depreciation and maintain relative currency stability.
