7.2% Cedi Decline Not Cause for Alarm – Forex Expert
Forex Expert and President of Women in Forex Ghana, Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah has described Databank Research’s projection of a 7.2% depreciation of the cedi in 2026 as measured, realistic, and far from alarming.
In a media interview, she noted that the forecast, which estimates the cedi, could end the year at around GH¢12.85 to the US dollar, should be viewed within the context of broader macroeconomic factors rather than as a sign of instability.
Ms Annor-Sika Asantewah explained that a modest single-digit depreciation in a frontier economy like Ghana is normal and only becomes concerning when driven by disorderly volatility or panic.
The projection accounts for predictable foreign exchange demand from bulk importers, energy sector payments and Eurobond obligations, structural pressures that recur annually as part of Ghana’s fiscal and trade cycle.
“The critical factor is whether foreign exchange inflows from gold exports, remittances and multilateral support are sufficient and consistent. When properly managed, these pressures are manageable,” she said.
A key factor in the projection is a conservative monthly gold inflow of about GH¢750 million, supported by reforms in the small-scale mining sector.
“Gold is Ghana’s strongest natural hedge, consistent inflows provide the Bank of Ghana with sufficient liquidity to manage market volatility and maintain confidence,” she stated.
She also highlighted the role of multilateral support from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in strengthening market confidence. According to her, engagement from these institutions signals policy discipline and continuity to global investors. However, she stressed that domestic fiscal discipline remains essential.
“External validation helps, but internal governance sustains,” she emphasized.
Ms Annor-Sika Asantewah also pointed to stronger reserve buffers and tighter foreign exchange regulations as stabilising factors. “Our reserves today are stronger than in previous stress periods, monitoring is stricter, and enforcement more effective. Narrower gaps between official and unofficial rates improve transparency and reduce panic.”
For businesses, she advised proactive currency planning. She noted that a 7.2% depreciation spread over the year is manageable and allows firms to hedge, diversify suppliers and plan pricing strategies. Exporters she said may benefit from improved competitiveness, as a moderately weaker cedi can enhance margins.
She said the projected depreciation reflects a measured adjustment within Ghana’s macroeconomic framework not a crisis. “This is not a doomsday forecast. Ongoing demand pressures are balanced by gold inflows, reserve buffers, and external support. Confidence and consistent policymaking will ultimately determine outcomes. Just as last year, when predictions of depreciation proved wrong and the cedi ended the year stronger, the same could happen in 2026.”
