Ghana’s Economy Still Vulnerable to Commodity Swings – PwC Warns

By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi

Global accounting firm PwC has cautioned that Ghana’s economy, despite recent signs of stability, remains highly vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations and tightening global financial conditions.

The warning is contained in PwC’s 2026 West Africa Economic Outlook, which highlights that while key macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, exchange rates and fiscal balances improved significantly in 2025, underlying structural risks persist.

According to the report, Ghana’s recovery has been largely supported by favourable global commodity prices, particularly gold but this dependence presents a major downside risk.

“Inflation, foreign exchange and fiscal balances improved markedly in 2025, but Ghana remains exposed to commodity price volatility, climate shocks, and global financial tightening,” PwC stated.

The firm emphasised that Ghana’s heavy reliance on primary commodity exports, including gold, cocoa and crude oil, continues to expose the economy to terms-of-trade shocks, especially in the event of a downturn in global prices.

It further noted that external resilience remains anchored on these commodities, alongside remittance inflows from the diaspora, which together support foreign exchange stability. However, this structure leaves the economy susceptible to external disruptions.

PwC’s concerns echo similar warnings by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has also flagged Ghana’s vulnerability to external shocks and cautioned that recent gains could be difficult to sustain without continued reforms.

Cedi Outlook and External Pressures

The Ghanaian cedi ended 2025 on a strong note, appreciating by over 40 percent against the US dollar, supported by improved foreign exchange inflows and stronger reserve buffers.

PwC attributed this performance to increased export earnings and strategic interventions by the Bank of Ghana.

However, the firm warned that the currency could face renewed depreciation pressures in 2026 due to structural export constraints and global financial conditions.

“The cedi is expected to face renewed depreciation pressures in 2026… although policy buffers and FX inflows should help limit excessive volatility,” the report noted.

Despite these risks, PwC expects relative exchange rate stability to be maintained, supported by continued export receipts and remittances.

Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook

PwC projects that inflation will remain within the central bank’s target range of 8 percent ± 2 percent, reflecting sustained disinflation and anchored expectations.

However, risks to this outlook remain, particularly from global commodity price movements and potential election-related spending pressures.

The firm noted that while there is scope for cautious monetary policy easing to support credit growth and economic expansion, policymakers are likely to proceed carefully to maintain credibility and stability.

Debt and Growth Prospects

On debt sustainability, PwC indicated that Ghana’s outlook could improve if ongoing restructuring efforts and fiscal discipline continue to rebuild investor confidence and reduce borrowing costs.

Reforms within the gold sector, it added, could also help stabilise the cedi and reduce reliance on foreign-currency-denominated debt.

In terms of growth, PwC projected a moderate recovery, with real GDP expected to expand by 4.8 percent in 2026. This growth is anticipated to be driven largely by non-oil sectors, particularly agriculture, services and export-oriented industries.

However, the report cautioned that weak domestic demand and constrained public investment could limit stronger expansion.

“Gradual growth recovery led by non-oil sectors… while weak domestic demand and constrained public investment cap upside,” PwC stated.

Overall, PwC stressed the need for continued policy discipline, diversification of the economy and stronger shock absorbers to safeguard recent gains and build long-term resilience.