Ghana Risks $21.3bn Loss as Benin Targets Manufacturers
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Ghana faces the risk of losing as much as $21.3 billion in economic value and up to 435,000 jobs over the next five years if urgent policy reforms are not implemented to counter intensifying regional competition for manufacturing and agro-processing investment, the Chamber of Agribusiness Ghana (CAG) has warned.
In a media statement dated February 9, 2026, the Chamber said the country’s industrial base is coming under growing pressure as neighbouring countries, particularly Benin, roll out aggressive incentive packages that are drawing factories, capital and skilled labour away from Ghana.
According to the Chamber, Benin’s newly announced industrial strategy, designed to attract manufacturers from Ghana, Nigeria and across the West African sub-region has significantly raised the stakes for regional competition. The strategy leverages lower corporate taxes, cheaper electricity, faster port clearance, and duty-free access to key export markets, making it increasingly attractive for manufacturers seeking cost efficiency.
Based on its technical analysis, the Chamber estimates that between 395 and 535 factories could either relocate or shut down between 2026 and 2030 if Ghana fails to respond decisively. Agro-processing facilities are expected to account for about 40 percent of the affected factories, posing a serious threat to value chains linked to agriculture, food security and rural employment.
The projected impact goes beyond factory closures. The Chamber estimates that Ghana could lose between $4.0 billion and $6.6 billion in diverted foreign direct investment, alongside declining tax revenues, rising unemployment and weakened industrial capacity. Skills migration alone could cost the country billions of dollars in lost investment in trained professionals, as engineers, technicians and managers follow relocating firms to more competitive jurisdictions.
The statement highlighted Ghana’s growing cost disadvantage relative to peers such as Benin, Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria, particularly in key areas affecting industrial competitiveness. Ghana’s corporate tax rate of 25 percent and industrial electricity tariffs ranging from $0.14 to $0.19 per kilowatt-hour compare unfavourably with Benin’s 0–5 percent tax regime in Special Economic Zones and power tariffs as low as $0.08 per kilowatt-hour. Longer port dwell times and higher import duties on machinery further compound the challenge.
If current trends persist, the Chamber warned that Ghana’s manufacturing sector could shrink from 11.3 percent of GDP to 7.8 percent, while unemployment could rise by between 1.8 and 3.2 percentage points, reversing years of industrialisation efforts.
The Chamber stressed that the threat is no longer theoretical.
“We are not talking about future risks; we are experiencing factory closures and skills migration right now,” the statement said, describing the situation as a defining moment for Ghana’s industrial future.
Despite the grim outlook, the Chamber maintained that Ghana still has a window of opportunity to reverse the trend. It pointed to the country’s democratic stability, rule of law, English-language advantage, strategic geographic location, and its status as host of the AfCFTA Secretariat as enduring strengths that can still be leveraged with the right policy mix.
“The good news is that Ghana retains significant competitive advantages. “What we lack is competitive policy and this can be fixed with political will and urgent action,” the statement noted.
The Chamber called on government to treat the situation as a national economic emergency, urging swift reforms in taxation, energy pricing, port efficiency and industrial incentives to stem further losses.
“Every week of delay means more factories lost, more jobs eliminated, and more skilled professionals leaving our shores. The time for action is now,” the statement warned.
