Ghana Reference Rate for February Expected to Decline to 14.58%

By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi

The Ghana Reference Rate (GRR) for February 2026 is expected to decline to about 14.58 per cent, down from the 15.68 per cent recorded in January, signalling a potential easing of borrowing costs in the economy.

The projection is based on industry data and standard inputs used by financial sector players to compute the Ghana Reference Rate, which serves as the benchmark for pricing loans by commercial banks.

If confirmed, the decline could translate into marginal reductions in lending rates for businesses and households between now and early March 2026, particularly for borrowers on variable-rate facilities.

Basis for the Projection

•            91-day Treasury bill rate: 11.19 per cent (end-January 2026)

•            Interbank rate: 14.91 per cent (January 2026)

•            Monetary Policy Rate (MPR): 15.5 per cent

Applying these indicators to the standard GRR formula points to a decline of approximately 1.1 percentage points, bringing the expected February rate to 14.58 per cent.

Industry analysts note that if commercial banks do not impose additional risk premiums or charges, the official GRR to be announced later in February is likely to settle around this projected level.

Policy Rate Influence

The expected decline in the Ghana Reference Rate is largely attributed to the recent 250-basis-point cut in the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Rate to 15.5 per cent, which has exerted downward pressure on money market and interbank rates.

With inflation having fallen sharply and real policy rates remaining restrictive, the easing cycle has begun to filter through to benchmark lending indicators, including the GRR.

Commercial banks and financial institutions are expected to publish the official February Ghana Reference Rate following the central bank’s latest policy adjustment.

Bankers Urge Caution

Despite the positive outlook, bankers have cautioned borrowers against expecting sharp declines in lending rates.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Ghana Association of Banks (GAB), John Awuah, said while the policy rate is a key input, the Ghana Reference Rate is determined by multiple variables.

“The policy rate is only one component. Treasury bill rates, interbank conditions, and liquidity dynamics all feed into the GRR,” he explained.

Mr. Awuah, however, reaffirmed that commercial banks remain committed to reviewing their lending rates once the new GRR is announced. He also rejected claims that banks have failed to respond to policy easing, noting that data over the past year show a significant downward adjustment in the Ghana Reference Rate.

Background and Trend

The Ghana Reference Rate was last reviewed downward on January 7, 2026, when it declined from 15.9 per cent in December 2025 to 15.68 per cent.

In December 2025, the GRR fell following a 350-basis-point cut in the Monetary Policy Rate to 18 per cent, alongside softer Treasury bill yields.

Earlier movements show a clear downward trend:

•            November 2025: GRR edged up to 17.96% from 17.86%

•            October 2025: GRR declined sharply from 19.86% in September

•            January 2025: GRR stood at 29.72%, rising slightly to 29.96% in February before declining steadily to 19.67% by August

The rate was introduced in 2017 by the Bank of Ghana and the Ghana Association of Banks to replace the opaque base-rate system and promote transparency, consistency, and fairness in loan pricing. The maiden rate announced in April 2017 was 16.82 per cent.

Implications for Borrowers

Loans contracted in February 2026 at variable rates are likely to be benchmarked against the new Ghana Reference Rate, potentially resulting in modest reductions in interest payments.

Borrowers on fixed-rate loans will not be affected, while those on variable-rate facilities may benefit from slightly lower servicing costs.

If the projected decline materialises, average lending rates, currently hovering around 22 per cent, could ease marginally, offering some relief to businesses struggling with high financing costs.

However, the President of the Ghana National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GNCCI), Stephane Miezan, has warned that beyond interest rates, access to credit remains a major challenge for many businesses.

He noted that tight lending conditions and risk aversion by banks have contributed to the collapse of some firms, underscoring the need for broader financial sector reforms to improve credit flow to productive enterprises.