Cedi Gains in 2025 Driven by Local Policy, Not IMF – Senyo Hosi
Economic Policy Analyst, Senyo Hosi has commended the economic managers of the country for what he describes as an unexpected and well-executed turnaround in the Ghana cedi’s strength in 2025.
Responding to recent commentary on the cedi’s appreciation against major international currencies, Mr. Hosi rejected claims that the International Monetary Fund was the primary driver of the currency’s sharp gains.
He said the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana deserve credit for stabilizing the economy and coordinating fiscal and monetary policy in a way not seen in decades. While acknowledging that the IMF program helped prevent further deterioration, he argued it could not logically explain a forecast-defying appreciation of the cedi.
Mr. Hosi emphasized the need to recognize successes as openly as shortcomings, describing the work of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana as decisive in restoring stability many thought impossible a year earlier.
His comments follow media arguments suggesting that as much as 55% of the cedi’s 2025 appreciation was linked to debt relief and the IMF program, a position associated with policy advocate Bright Simons, who cited modelling connecting the gains to IMF interventions.
He said such claims confuse stabilization with actual propulsion. He acknowledged that the IMF played a critical role during severe economic stress in 2022, providing a framework that restored confidence, rebuilt reserves, and imposed fiscal discipline, but added that by early 2025, the main elements of the IMF programme and debt restructuring were public knowledge and fully priced into the foreign exchange market, limiting their capacity to trigger large, sudden gains.
He pointed to IMF and independent forecasts at the end of 2024, which broadly projected continued depreciation, yet the cedi instead appreciated roughly 29 percent against the US dollar, moving from about 14.7 to near 10.45 at its strongest point before averaging higher levels over the year. He said this result represented a forecasting error rather than proof of IMF impact, noting that exchange rates react primarily to new and unexpected information, not known policies.
Mr. Hosi attributed the cedi’s performance to a combination of domestic policy choices and favorable external conditions. Domestically, he praised improved coordination between fiscal authorities and the central bank, as well as operational innovations involving the GoldBod, which helped channel increased official gold exports.
Externally, he highlighted a global gold price rally that boosted foreign exchange inflows and allowed more effective market interventions.
He said the cooperation and discipline demonstrated by Ghanaian economic managers in 2025 was exceptional, showing that local expertise could deliver results without always relying on external validation.
While commending the progress, Hosi warned against complacency, echoing Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiamah that currency strength is not permanent unless supported by a productive, competitive, and disciplined real economy. He said the gains are real but not yet structural and urged continued reforms to sustain stability over the long term.
Hosi concluded by calling for humility and honesty in public policy debates, arguing that trust is built when analysts and advocates correct errors and give credit where it is due. He added that the 2025 performance shows Ghanaians are capable of delivering results through sound policy management.
