Oil Gains Slightly but Remains Under Pressure from Global Tensions
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Brent crude oil prices recorded a modest rebound on Monday, December 15, 2025, as geopolitical developments injected fresh uncertainty into global energy markets. Despite the slight uptick, prices remain weighed down by persistent oversupply concerns and subdued demand outlooks, keeping the broader trend fragile.
Brent crude edged up to $61.27 per barrel, representing a 0.24 per cent increase from the previous trading session. The gain helped the benchmark recover a fraction of last week’s losses, during which prices slid by more than 4 per cent. Even with Monday’s improvement, Brent remains under pressure, down 4.57 per cent over the past month and more than 17 per cent lower than levels recorded during the same period last year.
The mild recovery was largely driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, which have once again raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. In Latin America, the United States intensified its stance against Venezuela, seizing an oil tanker and announcing fresh sanctions targeting vessels and individuals linked to President Nicolás Maduro’s administration. The move, accompanied by reports of an expanded US military presence in the region, has heightened uncertainty around Venezuelan crude exports, which are already constrained by longstanding sanctions.
Venezuela, home to some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, remains a critical swing factor in global supply dynamics. Any further disruption to its exports, analysts note, could tighten regional markets, even if global supply remains ample.
In Eastern Europe, attention remained focused on developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Over the weekend, peace talks were held in Berlin, with US envoy Steve Witkoff describing the discussions as having made “a lot of progress.” However, optimism around diplomacy was tempered by continued hostilities on the ground. Ukrainian forces reportedly carried out additional drone strikes on oil depots and refineries across several Russian regions, keeping the risk of supply interruptions firmly in play.
Russia is one of the world’s largest crude exporters, and sustained attacks on its energy infrastructure have the potential to disrupt output and exports, particularly if damage becomes more extensive or prolonged. As a result, traders remain cautious, closely monitoring developments in the region.
Further adding to market uncertainty, Iran announced the seizure of a foreign oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman over alleged fuel smuggling. The incident has renewed concerns about the security of key shipping routes in the Middle East, a region that plays a central role in global oil supply. Any escalation in tensions around the Strait of Hormuz or nearby waterways could have significant implications for global crude flows.
Despite these geopolitical flashpoints, analysts stress that the oil market continues to grapple with fundamental oversupply. Strong production levels from major oil-producing nations, including both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, have kept inventories elevated. At the same time, demand growth has softened in parts of Europe and Asia amid slower economic expansion and efficiency gains.
This imbalance between supply and demand has limited the upside for prices, even as geopolitical risks provide intermittent support. Market participants are therefore balancing short-term disruptions against longer-term fundamentals, resulting in cautious trading and limited price momentum.
Monday’s modest gains highlight the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical developments. Even relatively small shifts in diplomatic relations, military activity, or sanctions policy can quickly influence prices. As the week progresses, traders are expected to remain alert, closely tracking developments in Venezuela, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, and the broader Middle East. For now, while Brent crude has found some short-term support, the market remains constrained by oversupply concerns, suggesting that any sustained recovery will likely depend on clearer signs of tightening supply or stronger global demand.
