Ghana’s Growth to Hit 5.9% in 2026 – Fitch Solutions
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Ghana’s economy is projected to record a slight improvement in growth next year, with Fitch Solutions forecasting a marginal rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026. The projection, contained in the firm’s November 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook report, reflects expectations of a more stable macroeconomic environment supported by easing inflation and a firmer currency.
According to the UK-based research and analytics firm, private consumption will remain the key driver of growth as households benefit from continued declines in consumer price pressures. Inflation, which has been on a steady downward path, is expected to support real purchasing power and lift spending across key sectors of the economy.
Fitch Solutions, however, notes that the overall growth outlook will be tempered by ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts aimed at rebuilding buffers and strengthening public finances. The government’s tight fiscal stance, though necessary, is expected to limit public-sector spending and slow the pipeline of capital projects compared to previous years.
The institution also highlighted slow credit pass-through as an important factor moderating economic expansion. Despite improving liquidity in the banking sector, the transmission of lower policy rates into private-sector lending is expected to lag, constraining investment growth among businesses, particularly small and medium-scale enterprises. A firmer Ghana cedi, while positive for inflation and import bills, may also moderate export competitiveness in some sectors.
Fitch’s projection aligns with Ghana’s improving growth profile observed in the 2025 data, particularly the strong performance recorded in the second quarter. The economy expanded by 6.3% year-on-year during the quarter, up from a revised 5.7% in the same period of 2024. The growth was largely driven by household consumption and fixed investment, supported by a sharp drop in inflation and improving economic sentiment.
The services sector continues to anchor Ghana’s growth, expanding by 9.9% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to just 2% a year earlier. Sub-sectors including finance, insurance, education, and trade contributed significantly to this strong performance.
Overall, Fitch Solutions maintains a positive but cautious outlook, noting that while Ghana’s economic fundamentals are strengthening, growth momentum will depend on sustaining disinflation, deepening credit expansion, and navigating the constraints imposed by fiscal tightening.
