Ghana’s Economic Gains Encouraging but Fragile — Analyst Warns

By: Solomon Nartey Tetteh

Economic Analyst Emmanuel Boateng has cautioned that despite recent improvements in Ghana’s economic indicators, the country must remain vigilant to avoid reversing the gains. He made this remarks during discussion on the Business Breakfast show on Zed 101.9FM.

Mr. Boateng said Ghana’s recovery, while promising, is still fragile and must be treated as a probation period not a full turnaround.

“We remain on probation. Our results are safe, albeit good, but we are not fully out of the woods. Fiscal discipline is recent and has not been tested beyond the first-year cycle,” he said.

Mr. Boateng explained that much of the country’s current growth is driven by the services sector rather than manufacturing-led production, making the recovery less robust.

He noted that Ghana is benefiting from a favourable surge in gold prices rather than a deliberate export diversification strategy.

“These things are crucial. We are riding a gold price wave, not a structural transformation,” he said.

According to him, the coming months will be decisive. Sustaining the recovery will depend on maintaining fiscal discipline, building reserves rather than depleting them, and ensuring that credit flows to productive sectors at affordable rates.

“If we slip back into deficit monetisation or sacrifice credibility for short-term political gains, the progress we’ve made will evaporate faster than it materialised,” he noted.

Mr. Boateng urged policymakers to remain cautious, emphasising the importance of contingency planning to safeguard the economy against shocks.

“Our gains are real, but they are not yet durable. Vigilance is our best protection,” he noted.

Economic Analyst also said Ghana’s recent inflation decline is encouraging but warns that the country is not yet out of the woods. He stressed that while the progress is significant, more effort is required to sustain the gains.

Mr. Boateng pointed out that headline inflation has dropped sharply, from 23.8 percent in December last year to 8 percent currently. Core inflation indicators, he added, also show strong improvement, with the various measures ranging between 6.2 and 7.8 percent.

“When you compare the 8 percent to the previous 23.8 percent, you’re looking at a reduction of about 16.8 percentage points,” he explained.

He noted that the stability in inflation partly reflects the effects of higher prices recorded in 2024.

He stressed that while recent inflation figures are impressive, they should not create complacency, noting underlying work of maintaining monetary discipline, strengthening supply chains, and ensuring price stability, must continue.

“We’ve made remarkable progress, but we are not done. We still need to put in the work before we can confidently say we are fully back on track,” he said.