Fitch Projects BoG Policy Rate to Hit 16.50% by 2026
Fitch Solutions is forecasting that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will lower its monetary policy rate to 16.50% by the end of 2026, supported by sustained currency stability and a steady decline in inflation.
Speaking at the 2026 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Post-Budget Forum in Accra, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger, said Ghana’s improving macroeconomic environment creates room for further monetary easing in the months ahead.
He noted that the BoG has already begun an aggressive easing cycle.
“Rates have remained elevated, but the Bank of Ghana launched a decisive easing cycle this summer, cutting by 650 basis points so far the fastest monetary easing cycle globally this year,” he said.
Kruiniger added that with inflation now back within the central bank’s target band supported by strong foreign exchange inflows and a relatively stable currency, Fitch expects the benchmark policy rate to gradually fall to 16.50% by late 2026.
“While monetary transmission takes time, we anticipate a clear pickup in private-sector credit demand over the coming quarters, following nearly three years of weakness,” he noted.
Fitch Solutions is also projecting robust economic growth for Ghana in 2026, forecasting that the country will outperform many of its emerging-market peers. The UK-based research firm says Ghana’s solid macroeconomic performance in 2025 is expected to carry into the following year.
“We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth, and this aligns with our forecast that Ghana’s real GDP growth will rise from an already strong 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026. Continued strong economic performance will be driven by private consumption and an ongoing recovery in fixed investment, which is rebounding from the sharp contraction recorded in 2023,” Kruiniger noted.
However, he warned that the escalating Islamist insurgency in the Sahel poses a significant risk to Ghana’s economic outlook heading into 2026. Persistent instability in the region, he said, could trigger security spillovers with implications for the investment climate, fiscal stability and broader macroeconomic conditions.
Kruiniger added that Ghana may be forced to increase military spending to protect the economy from potential shocks.
