UN forecasts first-ever fall in global emissions

Global emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases are expected to fall by about 10 per cent by 2035 compared with 1990 levels, representing the first decline ever forecast by the United Nations.

However, the world remains well off course to keeping global warming below the 1.5°C target that world leaders committed to under the Paris Agreement a decade ago.

“Humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough. We have a serious need for more speed,” Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said on Tuesday.

Carbon emissions are already affecting people’s lives and economies, with droughts, storms and heatwaves killing thousands and causing billions of dollars in economic losses every year.

Addressing the gap between current emissions levels and where scientists say they should be is a major challenge facing countries at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil next month.

The decline predicted by the UN is based on promises made by countries representing about 80 per cent of global emissions. It falls well short of the 60 per cent cut by 2035 that scientists say is needed to keep warming close to 1.5°C by the end of the century and to avoid catastrophic climate change.

“This report lays bare a frightening gap between what governments have promised and what is needed to protect people and planet. While the transition to a low-carbon economy is under way, it is clear that countries need to shift from a jog to an all-out sprint,” said Melanie Robinson, Global Climate, Economics and Finance Programme Director at the World Resources Institute.

On Tuesday, the UNFCCC also released its NDC Synthesis Report, based on countries’ detailed climate plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. The Paris Agreement requires countries to submit NDCs every five years, with the next round due in 2025.

However, only 64 countries, representing about a third of global emissions, submitted theirs by 30 September in time for the UN to make the calculations needed to produce the report.

China, the world’s biggest polluter, has set a target to cut economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 per cent over the next decade, but it has not yet formally submitted that goal to the UN. The European Union is expected to reach a consensus among its 27 member states on 4 November, too late for inclusion in the synthesis report but in time for COP30. India has not indicated when it will deliver its NDC.

Brazil, the United Kingdom and Norway were among the countries whose climate pledges were included. There is also a United States plan submitted under former President Joe Biden, although it is unlikely to be implemented under current President Donald Trump.

The 64 NDCs analysed may result in a reduction in emissions of 17 per cent by 2035 from 2019 levels. If their plans are implemented, the group’s emissions would peak before 2030 and then fall sharply after 2035, with most of the nations reaching net zero by 2050, all necessary steps to avoid dangerous warming.

The UNFCCC noted that, for the first time, most climate plans include all sectors of the economy and are of higher quality and credibility. They also go beyond cutting emissions, known as mitigation, and include elements such as adaptation, finance, technology transfer, capacity-building, and addressing economic loss and damage caused by climate change.

Unlike previous editions of the NDC Synthesis Report, this year’s version does not include a temperature estimate for global warming by the end of the century because the sample is too small.

The UN plans to update the report in the coming days, and a new edition may include a temperature estimate. Last year, the UN projected that global temperatures by 2100 would be between 2.1°C and 2.8°C higher than in pre-industrial times.

Over the past week, South Africa, Malaysia and Indonesia have submitted their NDCs, and more countries are expected to do so ahead of and during the COP30 leaders’ summit in Belém, Brazil, on 6 and 7 November.

How to close the gap to 1.5°C is one of the key tests for success at the meeting and likely one of the toughest battles. While progressive nations, including those in the European Union, are pushing for stronger mitigation efforts, others such as Saudi Arabia and India remain staunchly opposed.