2026 Budget set to maintain 1.5% primary surplus
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
The 2026 Budget is projected to maintain a primary surplus of 1.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in line with the benchmark under Ghana’s Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), according to research by IC Research, a leading financial markets analysis firm.
The research noted that the government’s recent fiscal performance demonstrates sufficient policy credibility to stay within the fiscal limits throughout 2026, marking a significant return to fiscal discipline after years of economic turbulence.
As of August 2025, Ghana recorded a primary surplus of 1.1 per cent of GDP on a commitment basis, signalling steady progress towards achieving the full-year target of 1.5 per cent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also expressed optimism that the authorities will meet the target by the end of 2025, in line with commitments under the ongoing Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme.
If achieved, this will represent the first effective compliance with the FRA since its introduction in 2018, highlighting Ghana’s gradual return to the path of fiscal sustainability.
Despite lingering market concerns about Ghana’s fiscal stance after the conclusion of the IMF programme, both the Fund and IC Research expect the 2026 fiscal framework to remain compliant with the law, maintaining the 1.5 per cent primary surplus target for a second consecutive year.
“We think the authorities have exhibited sufficient policy credibility to stay within the fiscal limits in 2026,” IC Research stated.
However, the firm warned that persistent revenue shortfalls and a likely increase in spending pressures could test the government’s ability to sustain fiscal credibility beyond the IMF-supported programme.
“We flag the continued revenue underperformance amid expectations of a ramp-up in spending pressure as a major test of the authorities’ resolve to sustain fiscal credibility beyond the IMF programme,” it cautioned.
The 2026 Budget Statement and Economic Policy is scheduled to be presented to Parliament on Wednesday, November 13, 2025, by the Minister for Finance, Dr Cassiel Ato Forson.
The presentation will outline government policy priorities for the medium term, including strategies to consolidate fiscal stability, enhance revenue mobilisation, and anchor debt sustainability, while supporting growth and social spending.
