Ghana can surpass IMF, World Bank growth targets – Prof. Quartey
Economist Professor Peter Quartey has expressed optimism that Ghana’s economy could outperform the 2025 growth forecasts made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, citing improved macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline and structural reforms.
The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released in October 2025, projected Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 4.0 per cent next year, marginally below the World Bank’s estimate of 4.3 per cent.
Both institutions maintain cautious optimism, noting that while Ghana’s economy is stabilising under the ongoing IMF-supported Economic Recovery Programme, challenges in debt restructuring and inflation management still pose risks.
However, Prof Quartey, a former Director of the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER), believes the country’s strong recovery momentum and policy consistency could push real GDP growth above the Bretton Woods institutions’ forecasts.
“Certainly, the IMF and the World Bank are often cautiously optimistic; they do not want to project overly high numbers that might not be achieved. But as a country, oftentimes we have gone beyond their projections, all things being equal, and I believe we will go beyond the 4 per cent they are projecting,” he said.
According to him, if government maintains fiscal discipline, continues reforms in the public sector and strengthens domestic revenue mobilisation, Ghana could record growth closer to 5 per cent or more in 2025.
Pro Quartey explained that the IMF and World Bank typically adopt conservative assumptions to avoid unrealistic optimism, but domestic realities sometimes yield stronger results.
Prof Quartey also highlighted the importance of ensuring that economic expansion is environmentally sustainable. He cautioned that unchecked illegal mining and environmental degradation could undermine the quality of growth.
“Our environmental growth accounting has to be taken seriously. You can grow by 10 per cent, but if you destroy your environment, pollute your water bodies and poison food sources, it is not something to celebrate,” he warned.
Prof Quartey made the remarks in an interview with Citi Business News on the sidelines of a symposium in honour of Emeritus Professor Ernest Aryeetey at the University of Ghana.
The symposium, themed “Placing Research at the Centre of Higher Education in Africa,” celebrated Professor Aryeetey’s remarkable legacy as a scholar, reformer and former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Ghana.
Appointed in 2010, Professor Aryeetey led sweeping reforms that enhanced the university’s research output, governance systems and international collaborations.
Under his leadership, the university strengthened graduate programmes, expanded academic partnerships and deepened its global reputation as a centre of research excellence.
Prof Quartey made the remarks while speaking to the media on the sidelines of a symposium in honour of Emeritus Professor Ernest Aryeetey at the University of Ghana.
