Moody’s, IMF signal rising confidence in Ghana’s recovery
Confidence in Ghana’s reform efforts has strengthened following Moody’s decision to upgrade the country’s credit rating to Caa1 with a stable outlook.
This comes on the heels of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) fifth review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), which reached staff-level agreement earlier this month.
These developments reflect growing international confidence that fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stability are taking hold under Ghana’s three-year IMF-supported recovery plan.
The IMF announced on 10 October 2025 that, once the Executive Board approves the fifth review, a new 385 million dollar tranche will be released, increasing total disbursements to around 2 billion dollars of the 3 billion dollar programme.
The Fund highlighted that macroeconomic stabilisation is taking root, with economic growth exceeding expectations, inflation falling sharply and reserves surpassing targets.
Moody’s cited declining public debt, stronger fiscal discipline and renewed policy credibility in raising Ghana’s long-term issuer rating from Caa2 to Caa1 and revising the outlook from negative to stable.
The credit agency attributed this to progress in debt restructuring and fiscal consolidation supported by the IMF programme, which lowers default risk and strengthens the sovereign credit profile.
This follows a similar upgrade by Fitch to B minus in June 2025, signalling a steady return of investor confidence in Ghana.
The local market responded positively. Treasury bills were oversubscribed by 23 per cent in the latest auction, with only slight increases in yields on short-term government notes, according to Bank of Ghana data. Patrick Edem Agama, Head of Trading at Republic Securities, noted that reduced inflation and cedi stability are driving greater demand for cedi-denominated assets.
He said the IMF and Moody’s developments reassure investors of Ghana’s credible recovery path, likely attracting more portfolio inflows. The Ghana Stock Exchange also reflected growing confidence, with financial and consumer stocks such as CAL Bank, Fan Milk, Guinness Ghana and TotalEnergies leading gains.
Looking ahead, the IMF projects Ghana’s economy will grow by 4.8 per cent in 2026, supported by strong services and agriculture sectors. Inflation is expected to stay within the central bank’s single-digit target. The current-account surplus should improve, supporting reserves and exchange rate stability. The final IMF review date may be shifted from April to August 2026 to allow completion of benchmarks and legislative approvals.
The government is pushing ahead with reforms to boost revenue mobilisation, cut expenditures and restructure state-owned enterprises. The Ghana Revenue Authority recently disrupted a GHS2.3 million diesel tax evasion scheme, showing commitment to protecting public funds.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Ghana has maintained a tight monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations and support the cedi.
