World Bank raises Ghana’s growth forecast to 4.3%
The World Bank now expects Ghana’s economy to end 2025 with a growth rate of 4.3 per cent, up from its earlier projection of 3.9 per cent.
This was contained in the October 2025 edition of the Africa’ Pulse Report released by the Bank in Washington, D.C., United States.
The revised projection is slightly lower than the 4.4 per cent growth target set by the Government of Ghana in the 2025 Budget.
Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, driven mainly by the services sector, which grew by 9.9 per cent and contributed the largest share to GDP.
According to the World Bank, Ghana’s growth outlook remains positive, with projections of 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 4.8 per cent in 2027.
The report also noted that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy remains resilient, with growth projected to reach 3.8 per cent in 2025, up from 3.5 per cent in 2024.
This acceleration, the Bank explained, reflects easing inflationary pressures and a modest recovery in investment despite ongoing global uncertainties.
It further observed that the number of African countries experiencing double-digit inflation has dropped sharply, from 23 in October 2022 to 10 in July 2025, signalling progress in price stabilisation.
However, it warned that downside risks persist, including the indirect effects of global trade policy uncertainty, declining investor appetite, and a shrinking pool of external finance and development assistance.
The World Bank projects Ghana’s inflation to end 2025 at 15.4 per cent.
This forecast contrasts with the latest official figure of 9.4 per cent for September 2025, down sharply from 21.5 per cent in September 2024.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Ghana, in its latest Monetary Policy Report, maintained that inflation is expected to remain in the single-digit range by the end of 2025.
The Ghana cedi has appreciated by over 20 per cent year-to-date in the first eight months of 2025, after weakening by 19 per cent in 2024.
The World Bank attributes the cedi’s strong performance to tight fiscal and monetary policies, rising export revenues, especially from cocoa and gold, and improved market confidence following the completion of Ghana’s debt restructuring process.
However, the Bank expressed concern over a 14 per cent depreciation of the cedi between June and early September, attributed to the Bank of Ghana’s limited foreign exchange supply amid rising import demand ahead of the festive season.
The report also confirmed that Ghana has exited the “debt distress” classification, having made significant progress in restructuring obligations to bilateral and commercial creditors.
Still, the Bank warned that refinancing pressures remain a major risk, as Ghana faces a USD500 million Eurobond redemption in 2025 (0.7 per cent of GDP), which rises to 1.2 per cent of GDP in 2026.
These pressures, it added, are not unique to Ghana, with several Sub-Saharan African economies facing peak debt maturities in 2026, potentially heightening regional risk premiums.
The report observed that business conditions in Ghana have improved, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising from 50.2 in July to 50.8 in August 2025, supported by new orders and sustained job creation.
Although poor weather slightly affected output, business optimism remained strong as new sales and orders increased amid reduced input costs and a stronger cedi.
Inflation also continued to decline, falling for the seventh consecutive month to 12.1 per cent in July 2025, from 23.8 per cent in December 2024.
The report further recalled that Ghana’s “Dumsor” power crisis (2012 to 2016) caused a 12.3 per cent reduction in foreign direct investments (FDI) in non-energy sectors.
It explained that firms frequently exposed to power outages exhibited lower productivity due to disrupted operations, high self-generation costs, and reduced capital efficiency.
The Bank emphasised that stable power supply and competitive energy pricing are critical to sustaining industrial productivity and attracting new investments.
