Cedi projected to reach GHS₵12.20 on tight forex supply
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
The Ghana cedi is projected to weaken further in September 2025, with analysts forecasting a slide towards GHS12.20 to the US dollar on the interbank market.
The anticipated depreciation follows a sharp decline in August, when the local unit fell to GHS11.70 per US dollar, largely due to tight foreign exchange supply and strong corporate demand.
In its latest outlook, IC Research, the research arm of IC Securities, said the cedi remains under pressure as the market adjusts to structural constraints.
“We expect further interbank weakness toward our fair value of GHS12.2/US dollar ±0.5 as market correction continues amid tight FX supply and elevated FX demand,” the firm noted.
Losses on the retail market have been steeper, with the currency quoted at GHS12.40 per US dollar, partly amplified by the Bank of Ghana’s recent curb on foreign currency cash withdrawals not backed by equivalent cash deposits.
At present, the central bank is quoting the cedi at GHS11.96 to the dollar on the interbank market, while forex bureaus are selling at GHS13.00.
Bloomberg data shows the cedi weakened by 13 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, erasing part of its extraordinary run earlier this year.
In the three months through June, the cedi had emerged as the world’s best-performing currency, buoyed by stronger bullion prices and improved sentiment, notching a 50 per cent gain.
Despite the recent losses, the cedi remains up 20.35 per cent year-to-date as of 5 September 2025, highlighting the currency’s volatile trajectory amid Ghana’s ongoing economic reset programme.
Market watchers say the cedi’s direction in the coming weeks will hinge on the pace of external inflows, forex market interventions and investor sentiment.
With dollar demand from corporates still elevated and supply conditions constrained, analysts caution that depreciation pressures are likely to persist in the short term.
The Bank of Ghana is expected to maintain a cautious stance, balancing limited reserves with efforts to smooth volatility, even as businesses and consumers brace for a more expensive dollar in the months ahead
