Fitch Solutions forecasts BoG interest rate slash to 20% by end 2026

The Bank of Ghana (BoG) is projected to cut its benchmark interest rate to 23.00 percent by the close of 2025 and further to 20.00 percent by the end of 2026, according to Fitch Solutions’ latest report on Ghana’s monetary policy trajectory.

The projection follows the central bank’s steep 300 basis point reduction in July 2025, which brought the policy rate down to 25.00 percent.

The move was driven by a notable decline in inflation and a stable cedi, providing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with room to ease borrowing costs.

In its paper titled Monetary Easing To Persist In Ghana Until Mid-2026, the UK-based research firm said its forecast of an additional 200 basis points of cuts in 2025 and 300 basis points in 2026 is more conservative than the Focus Economics consensus, which anticipates a total of 583 basis points in easing over the same period.

Fitch Solutions expects the BoG to deliver another 100 basis point cut to 24.00 percent at its September 2025 MPC meeting, followed by a further 100 basis point reduction in November 2025. The easing cycle, it noted, is expected to extend into the first half of 2026.

According to the report, sustained high global gold prices, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and global trade risks, will underpin cedi stability over the coming quarters, limiting imported inflationary pressures. This favourable exchange rate environment, coupled with easing inflation, will give the BoG room to maintain a dovish policy stance.

Fitch Solutions anticipates that the central bank will cut the policy rate by another 100 basis points in November 2025 and that the easing cycle will continue in the first half of 2026.

“As gold prices remain elevated amid global trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks, the cedi will remain stable over the coming quarters, which will continue to limit imported price pressures. Indeed, we forecast average inflation to moderate from 22.9 percent in 2024 to 15.5 percent in 2025 and 12.2 percent in 2026, allowing the BoG to maintain a dovish stance at the final MPC meeting of 2025 and the first three meetings of 2026,” the report stated. At its most recent meeting in July 2025, the MPC implemented a 300 basis point rate cut, citing a substantial slowdown in inflation and the resilience of the cedi.