June inflation projected at 16%
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Ghana is set to register another sharp decline in its inflation rate for June 2025, with headline inflation projected to drop to 16.0 percent, according to a forecast by IC Research, the economic intelligence unit of IC Securities.
This would mark a significant 240 basis point (bps) fall from May’s inflation rate of 18.4 percent, continuing the country’s downward trend in inflation during the first half of the year.
“The June 2025 CPI data window recorded a 29.5 percent month-on-month and 35.3 percent year-on-year appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar. This exerted downward pressure on prices of imported items, with notable declines in petroleum prices and transport fares,” the report stated.
IC Research attributes the expected decline to a combination of foreign exchange pass-through effects and lower energy prices, including a 15 percent reduction in commercial transport fares, which helped suppress transport inflation and created downward spillovers for other price categories.
The report estimates month-on-month inflation for June will settle at 0.8 percent, reinforcing the downward trend in price levels observed since the start of the year.
Food and Non-Food Inflation Trends
The latest projections follow a series of favorable inflation trends reported by the Ghana Statistical Service in May, where food inflation dropped by 220 basis points to 22.8 percent, driven largely by falling prices in vegetables and tubers. The decline offset slight increases in other food items, including fish and seafood.
IC Research suggests that reductions in transport costs in June may have eased the month-on-month price pressures on vegetables and tubers, helping sustain food disinflation.
On the non-food side, inflation plunged by 350 basis points to 14.4 percent year-on-year in May, the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Transport inflation dropped sharply by 11.8 percentage points to 3.1 percent year-on-year, largely due to the appreciating cedi and falling fuel prices.
“We observed declines across 10 out of the 12 divisions of non-food inflation, highlighting that the ongoing disinflation is broad-based,” IC Research noted.
Macroeconomic Outlook Strengthens
If confirmed, the June forecast would represent the fifth consecutive monthly decline in Ghana’s annual inflation rate, marking a total drop of 540 basis points in just five months, a stark contrast to the 10 basis points cumulative decline recorded during the same period in 2024.
Economists say strong base effects, currency appreciation, and falling global oil prices have all worked in Ghana’s favor in recent months, contributing to steady improvements in macroeconomic conditions. The decline in inflation is expected to ease pressure on consumers and businesses while strengthening investor confidence in the country’s economic recovery.
