Climate disruptions to raise cocoa prices, analyst urges Ghana reform
By Rebecca Okine
Economic analyst Emmanuel Boateng has projected a significant rise in global cocoa prices, driven by climate-related disruptions in major cocoa-producing countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Speaking on the Business Breakfast on Zed on Tuesday, June 3, 2025, Mr. Boateng referenced the April 2025 edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Market Outlook, which forecasts a tightening global supply due to erratic weather patterns.
He explained that Ghana, as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, stands to benefit from this trend through increased export earnings.
“We are in a strong position to capitalize on the projected price hike,” Mr. Boateng said.
The increase is also expected to contribute positively to stabilizing Ghana’s current account and boosting government revenue.
However, Mr. Boateng warned that Ghana’s limited domestic cocoa processing remains a critical barrier to maximizing gains from the cocoa value chain. Currently, the country processes less than 30 percent of its cocoa domestically, exporting the bulk in raw form.
“This limits the value captured from the global cocoa market,” he noted, citing figures from COCOBOD reports.
Mr. Boateng stressed the need for urgent reforms to reposition Ghana as a value-added cocoa exporter rather than a raw material supplier. He proposed the establishment of an industrial cocoa processing zone equipped with the necessary infrastructure to attract both local and international investors.
“We need to reduce the investment burden on the private sector, and one way to do that is through targeted tax incentives,” he suggested.
In addition to industrialization, Mr. Boateng recommended expanding the Ghana EXIM Bank’s support for local cocoa farmers, noting that increased financial backing would not only enhance production but also attract more participants into the sector.
His call aligns with recent policy directions, particularly President John Dramani Mahama’s newly outlined eight-point economic recovery plan, which prioritizes repositioning the Ghana EXIM Bank to lead growth in non-traditional exports and agro-processing.
Mr. Boateng also emphasized the importance of climate-resilient agricultural practices.
“A portion of our foreign exchange earnings should be reinvested in sustainable cocoa farming techniques, including irrigation and climate-smart practices,” he advised.
According to him, this is essential to maintaining consistent production levels despite the increasing threat of climate-induced disruptions.
Mr. therefore urged policymakers, investors, and the private sector to collaborate in building a more resilient and value-driven cocoa economy, adding that the opportunity presented by rising cocoa prices should not be seen as a short-term windfall but as a strategic moment to reform the cocoa sector.
As global markets shift and weather patterns grow more unpredictable, Ghana’s ability to adapt and innovate in the cocoa sector may well determine its long-term gains from one of its most valuable exports.
