Fitch upgrades cedi outlook to ¢13 per dollar by end-2025
By Solomon Nartey Tetteh
Fitch Solutions has revised its end-of-year forecast for the Ghana cedi, now projecting a stronger performance at GH¢13.0 to the US dollar—an improvement from its earlier estimate of GH¢15.5.
The UK-based research firm also anticipates a 12.9 percent appreciation of the cedi against the dollar in 2025.
According to Fitch, the revision follows recent gains in the local currency, which appreciated by 16 percent between late April and mid-May 2025. This surge is mainly attributed to rising global gold prices, which have boosted investor confidence in Ghana’s economy.
“The cedi has appreciated by 16 percent between late April and mid-May (time of writing), driven by higher gold prices. As a result, our Country Risk team has revised the end-2025 exchange rate forecast to GH¢13.0/USD, down from the previous projection of GH¢15.5/USD.
“We now forecast the currency to strengthen by 12.9 percent over the course of 2025, from GH¢14.7/USD at the end of 2024,” the firm stated.
Fitch further noted that the stronger cedi is likely to create room for the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to return to a monetary easing stance.
“As Ghana remains a net importer of key consumer goods including fuel, cereals, pharmaceuticals, and plastics, a stronger exchange rate will have a disinflationary impact,” the report said.
Fitch expects moderating inflation, spurred by the cedi’s appreciation, to allow for a more relaxed monetary policy in the latter half of the year, although the BoG surprised markets with a 100 basis-point rate hike in March 2025, raising the policy rate to 28.00 percent.
It continued that: “We expect the BoG to reduce the policy rate by a total of 200 basis points in the second half of 2025, ending the year at 26.00 percent.”
Fitch added that these developments will likely increase household purchasing power and fuel higher consumer spending, becoming key drivers of economic growth in the near term.
