Ghana’s Total Petroleum Receipts for 2025 Decline Sharply to $769m
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Ghana’s total petroleum receipts for the 2025 fiscal year declined sharply to approximately US$769 million, representing a significant drop from the US$1.35 billion recorded in 2024, according to data from the Bank of Ghana (BoG) and the Ministry of Finance.
The data, which track petroleum revenues across multiple streams, indicate that the country underperformed relative to both historical outcomes and government projections, underscoring the growing fiscal risks associated with declining oil production and volatile global prices.
The US$769 million realised in 2025 reflects total inflows from petroleum liftings, royalties, carried and participating interests, corporate income tax, surface rentals, and other related sources. This outcome fell well short of government expectations outlined in the 2026 Budget Statement, which projected petroleum receipts of US$1.01 billion by the end of the year.
Presenting the Budget to Parliament in November 2025, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson had acknowledged early signs of underperformance, noting that the projected receipts would already represent a 35.7 per cent decline from the US$1.07 billion recorded over the same period in 2024.
Final outturn figures, however, show an even steeper contraction when compared with full-year 2024 receipts, which stood between US$1.35 billion and US$1.36 billion, a level that itself represented a 27.8 per cent increase over the US$1.06 billion recorded in 2023.
Reasons for the Decline
Explaining the downturn in petroleum revenues, Dr. Ato Forson attributed the decline primarily to a lower average achieved crude oil price during the year. According to the Minister, Ghana realised an average price of US$75.0 per barrel in 2025, compared with US$82.3 per barrel over the same period in 2024.
In addition to weaker prices, the Finance Minister cited a reduction in the number of crude oil liftings, stemming from lower production levels at Ghana’s mature oil fields, including Jubilee and Sankofa-Gye Nyame. Declining reservoir performance and maintenance-related disruptions at some fields further constrained output during the year.
Market analysts have echoed these concerns, pointing to ageing oil infrastructure, delayed investment in field development, and unfavourable international market dynamics as major contributors to the revenue shortfall in 2025.
Fiscal Importance and Policy Implications
Despite the sharp decline, Dr. Ato Forson emphasised that petroleum receipts remain a critical pillar of Ghana’s fiscal framework, providing funding for the Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA) as well as transfers to the Ghana Stabilisation Fund and the Ghana Heritage Fund.
However, he acknowledged that the sustained decline in output, combined with price volatility, highlights the urgent need for accelerated upstream investment, improved production efficiency, and stronger revenue management to safeguard long-term fiscal sustainability.
The Minister also noted government’s commitment to accelerating ABFA utilisation, particularly in the final quarter of the year, to ensure petroleum revenues are channelled into job-creating infrastructure projects and local development initiatives across the country.
2025 Petroleum Receipt Composition
A closer look at the composition of petroleum revenues in 2025 shows that corporate income tax remained a major contributor, accounting for approximately US$346 million, down from over US$500 million in 2024, reflecting weaker profitability in the upstream sector.
Earnings from crude oil exports were estimated at about US$416 million, while surface rentals contributed approximately US$8.63 million. Other inflows came from royalties, carried and participating interests, and petroleum holding fund interest.
Meanwhile, data from the Bank of Ghana indicate that the closing book value of investments under Ghana’s Petroleum Funds stood at approximately US$1.5 billion as of December 2025, providing a modest buffer against revenue volatility but underscoring the need to protect and grow the funds amid declining inflows.
Outlook
The sharp fall in petroleum receipts in 2025 reinforces longstanding concerns about Ghana’s over-reliance on oil revenues and the vulnerability of public finances to production shocks and external price movements.
Analysts warn that without renewed investment, diversification of the energy mix, and sustained fiscal discipline, petroleum revenues may continue to trend downward, increasing pressure on domestic financing, debt sustainability, and budget execution in the coming years.
