Stronghold or swing region?

-Straight fight between Naa Torshie and NAPO 

The running mate slot is now a straight fight between Irene Naa Torshie Addo, Administrator of District Assemblies Common Fund (DACF), and Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh, Energy Minister.

Since the Ashanti Region is the stronghold of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), the expectation is that the running mate will be selected from the region, as the flagbearer is from the Northern Region.

This assumption gained strong support, especially considering that the president and vice-president of the current NPP government are not from the party’s stronghold.

Dr. Opoku Prempeh is highly tipped to be the ideal candidate from the Ashanti but bitter rivalries and negative campaigning by supporters of aspiring running mates from the Ashanti Region seems to have endangered the chances of anyone from the Ashanti Region becoming the running mate.

Now, some political watchers have cautioned the NPP flagbearer, Alhaji Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, against selecting a running mate from the Ashanti Region, citing potential risks of widespread apathy within the party’s stronghold.

The warning comes amidst sharp divisions and intense lobbying within the party for the running mate position, which has led to bitter rivalries and negative campaigning among supporters of various candidates.

It is public knowledge that persons lobbying to be the running mate and their supporters are at loggerheads and have engaged in dirty campaigns against each other.

Heavyweights in the party in the Ashanti Region are vigorously fighting each other over the running slot.

According to insiders, the animosity between rival factions within the party in the Ashanti Region could result in significant voter apathy, with a sizable number of NPP supporters abstaining from voting if their preferred candidate is not selected as the running mate.

Statistical dynamics in Ashanti Region

The NPP has consistently secured significant victories in the region, citing percentages ranging from 65.8% to 77% in various elections.

Anytime the NDC appreciates votes in the region (above 28%) and NPP depreciates votes in the region (below 71%), the party (NPP) finds itself in trouble (opposition).

Any depreciation of votes below 71% in the region could spell trouble for the NPP, especially if the NDC gains ground with votes above 28%.

In the 1996 elections, the NPP had 65.8%, and the NDC had 32.8%, resulting in an NDC victory.

In the 2,000 elections, the NPP secured 74.8%, while the NDC obtained 22.5%, leading to an NPP win.

The 2004 elections saw the NPP with 77%, and the NDC with 21.8%, resulting in another victory for the NPP.

In the 2008 elections, the NPP obtained 72.5%, and the NDC had 26%. Although the NPP led in the first round, they lost to the NDC in a runoff.

The 2012 elections had the NPP with 70.9%, and the NDC with 28.4%, leading to an NDC win.

In 2016, the NPP secured 76.3%, while the NDC received 23%, resulting in an NPP victory.

The 2020 election was particularly interesting, as the NPP garnered 71.6%, and the NDC received 26%, yet the NPP emerged victorious.

A consistent 2% or 3% apathy and a drop in votes, particularly in their strongholds affects governing parties seeking a third consecutive win.

Challenge posed

This phenomenon poses a challenge for any party in government aiming for an extended tenure.

One does not need a soothsayer to agree to the fact that the rancor in the region poses serious danger to the chances of NPP in the December elections.

Interestingly, political watchers are of the view that selecting a running mate outside the Ashanti Region will satisfy all the groups lobbying on grounds that they all lost the opportunity.

In this case, the apathy that would have arisen if a candidate from the Ashanti Region was selected would have been avoided.

In this case, the NPP will gain a new advantage in the sense that the region from which the running mate is selected will also be motivated to vote NPP for a son or daughter of their soil to also become vice-president.

This motivation will be greater in regions that have never produced president or vice-president in the history of Ghana.

Another advantage the NPP stands to gain is to select the running mate from the two main swing regions of Central or Greater Accra Regions.

The NDC has selected its running mate from the Central Region and analysts say it will be wise for the NPP to select its running from the Greater Accra Region.

The NPP has a tradition of offering voters a Muslim-Christian ticket, which means the running mate has to be a Christian as the flagbearer is a Muslim.

It has also been pointed out that the Ashanti Region will have a stronger bargaining power for appointments in government if the running mate is not from the region.

With this power, the region could also lobby for more development projects when people from the region get appointed to high positions.