Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 59.1% by year-end – IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 59.1 per cent by the end of 2025, slightly below the government’s 60 per cent target for the same period.

This forecast is contained in the October 2025 Fiscal Monitor Report, released on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.

 The report provides an update on fiscal developments and medium-term projections across member countries, with particular attention to economies under Fund-supported programmes.

According to the IMF, Ghana’s public debt ratio is expected to decline gradually in the coming years, falling to 56.1 per cent in 2026, 53.7 per cent in 2027, and 51.3 per cent in 2028.

The estimates indicate that by 2028, Ghana would outperform the 55 per cent debt-to-GDP target under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Programme, which seeks to restore debt sustainability and reduce fiscal vulnerabilities.

Current Debt Levels and Outlook

Recent data from the Bank of Ghana (BoG) show that as of July 2025, the country’s total public debt stood at GHS628.8 billion, representing 44.9 per cent of GDP.

The central bank’s figures, published in its September 2025 Financial and Economic Data release, reflected the impact of ongoing debt restructuring and improved nominal GDP growth.

However, it remains uncertain whether the debt level will edge up in the final months of 2025 or stabilise, depending on borrowing needs and economic performance.

Under the current IMF programme, the government is mandated to reduce the debt ratio to 55 per cent over the medium term as part of efforts to anchor debt sustainability and maintain investor confidence.

IMF Urges Stronger Fiscal Management

Speaking at the Fiscal Monitor briefing, Davide Furceri, Deputy Division Chief at the IMF’s Research Department, commended Ghana’s progress but urged authorities to strengthen Public Financial Management (PFM) systems to prevent future debt crises.

“Enhancing revenue mobilisation through improved tax administration, broadening the VAT base, and prioritising expenditure efficiency will be critical in maintaining fiscal space for growth-supportive investment,” Mr Furceri stated.

Government on Debt Restructuring and Strategy

The Ministry of Finance has disclosed that Ghana has successfully restructured a significant portion of its bilateral debt and is finalising discussions with commercial creditors to complete the process.

The government has signed agreements with six bilateral partners, aligning with commitments under the IMF programme.

Officials reiterated government’s pledge to maintain fiscal discipline and avoid a return to unsustainable borrowing.

They added that the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (2025 to 2028) outlines a prudent financing framework anchored in Section 57 of the Public Financial Management Act, focusing on cost-effective borrowing, risk mitigation and sustainable debt servicing.

The government further stressed that its debt strategy is guided by Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) outcomes and reinforced by structural reforms under the ongoing IMF-supported programme aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability.