Ethiopia Heads to Election Amid Rising Tensions

In Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, there are few signs that a national election will take place on Monday. The vote will decide who leads Africa’s second most populous country for the next five years.

Only a handful of people can be seen wearing T shirts with the wheat symbol of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party (PP). There are no posters in the city, and the party’s only major rally ended early in the morning without Abiy himself appearing.

Many believe Abiy will easily win another term. Ethiopia’s 130 million citizens are used to elections that appear pre determined. Since the fall of the Derg dictatorship in 1991, most votes have ended with one party winning nearly all seats, often amid fraud allegations.

Some citizens say they will not participate. “I don’t think my vote can have a significant impact,” said Tesfalem, a designer in Addis Ababa. A teacher in Oromia agreed, saying the people’s voice has never changed anything. Both gave only their first names, fearing reprisals in today’s tense political climate.

Abiy came to power in 2018 promising reforms. He freed jailed opposition members and journalists, and even won the Nobel Peace Prize for making peace with Eritrea. But critics say his government has since tightened control, especially over the media. Ethiopia now ranks 148th out of 180 countries in the Press Freedom Index, and several international media groups were denied entry for this election.

Despite this, the Prosperity Party has achievements to highlight. Ethiopia’s economy has grown more than seven percent annually under Abiy, with forecasts of up to 10 percent this year. He has reduced state control, modernised Addis Ababa, and inaugurated Africa’s largest dam, expected to double electricity supply.

Still, the country faces serious challenges. Ethnic conflicts continue in Amhara and Oromia, where insurgents have threatened to disrupt voting. No ballots will be cast in Tigray, where tensions remain high after the civil war of 2020 2022 that displaced one million people.

In Lalibela, famous for its rock hewn churches, some political gatherings have taken place. But outside the city, clashes between the Fano insurgent group and federal forces make voting difficult.

Results are expected on June 11. Few expect surprises. The Prosperity Party won 96 percent of seats in 2021 and is running uncontested in 64 constituencies this time. Ethiopia has about 40 opposition parties, but none are seen as strong challengers. The largest, Ezema, is contesting fewer than 60 percent of seats and currently holds only four in parliament.

Merera Gudina, president of the Committee of Opposition Parties, said the election is more symbolic than competitive. “Conducting elections under these conditions is essentially a ritual intended to show the international community that the government is elected every five years by the people,” he told AFP.

For many Ethiopians, the vote feels less like a choice and more like a formality, with Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party expected to dominate once again.