Africa’s Economic Growth to Outpace Global Average Through 2027 – Afreximbank

Africa’s economy is projected to grow faster than the global average through 2027, supported by rising infrastructure investment, stronger domestic demand and the expansion of service sectors across the continent.

This is according to a new macroeconomic report released by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), which forecasts steady economic expansion across many African economies despite persistent fiscal and debt-related challenges.

According to the bank’s February report on macroeconomic developments, Africa’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027, compared with an estimated 4.3 percent growth in 2025.

By comparison, global economic growth is projected to remain broadly stable at around 3.3 percent during the same period.

Afreximbank said the improved outlook reflects strengthening macroeconomic stability across many countries on the continent, alongside renewed investment in sectors such as infrastructure, energy, mining and digital services.

Drivers of Growth

The report noted that economic growth patterns across Africa remain diverse, with different sectors driving expansion in different countries.

Commodity-producing economies are benefiting from relatively firm global prices and increased production capacity, particularly in minerals and energy.

Meanwhile, more diversified economies are experiencing recovery in sectors such as finance, information technology, tourism and other services.

The bank’s research unit said these trends are helping to sustain broader economic momentum across the continent.

Inflation Pressures Begin to Ease

Inflationary pressures across Africa have also begun to moderate following the sharp increases recorded in recent years due to pandemic-related disruptions and global commodity shocks.

According to the report, easing energy and food prices, together with tighter monetary policy implemented by several central banks, have contributed to slowing inflation in many economies.

However, price pressures remain elevated in some countries, particularly those heavily dependent on imports or those that experienced sharp currency depreciation in recent years.

Food inflation linked to climate variability and structural agricultural constraints continues to weigh on household purchasing power in several parts of the continent.

Debt Pressures Remain a Major Risk

Despite the positive growth outlook, Afreximbank warned that rising debt servicing costs remain one of the biggest challenges facing many African economies.

The report said higher global interest rates and increased reliance on non-concessional external borrowing have pushed debt service burdens above prudent levels in several frontier markets.

This situation has limited the fiscal space available to governments, making it more difficult to finance social programmes and critical infrastructure investments.

The bank also noted that the current global “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment is increasing refinancing risks for many countries while restricting fiscal policy flexibility.

Trade Opportunities and Risks

Although global trade tensions continue to rise, the report indicated that Africa’s direct exposure to tariff disputes between major economies remains relatively limited.

Only a small number of African countries export more than five percent of their goods to the United States, meaning the direct impact of trade conflicts may be contained.

However, indirect effects through commodity price volatility and slower global trade growth could still affect export revenues across the continent.

The report highlighted potential opportunities arising from global supply chain realignments, including rising demand for critical minerals, agribusiness products and light manufacturing.

Afreximbank also pointed to the role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in strengthening regional trade and reducing Africa’s dependence on traditional export markets.

Intra-African trade currently remains significantly lower than levels seen in other regions, but deeper regional integration could help unlock new growth opportunities.

Overall, the bank described Africa’s economic outlook as one of “cautious optimism,” noting that the gradual stabilization of many economies provides an opportunity for governments to implement structural reforms aimed at diversifying exports, strengthening fiscal buffers and improving productivity.