Economist Says Inflation ‘Fairly Firmly Anchored’ Through 2025-2026
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Economist Courage Boti has expressed cautious optimism about Ghana’s inflation trajectory, projecting that price stability could be maintained through the remainder of 2025 and throughout 2026 if current macroeconomic conditions are sustained. However, he warns that the progress achieved so far is still vulnerable to both domestic and external shocks, which could easily disrupt the stability gained.
Speaking in an interview Mr. Boti, who serves as Manager of Macroeconomic Research at GCB Bank, noted that the combination of easing price pressures, stronger policy coordination, and improved fiscal discipline has helped anchor inflation more firmly than in previous years.
According to him, the two major forces that typically drive inflation, cost-side and demand-side pressures are now moving in a direction that supports disinflation. He cited improvements in market food supply, moderating consumer demand, and policy consistency as key contributors.
Mr. Boti highlighted the Bank of Ghana’s proactive approach in managing liquidity, especially through sterilization measures that mop up excess money from the financial system. He added that the central bank’s cautious approach to gradually easing interest rates signals a commitment to balancing inflation risks while supporting economic recovery.
“Everything is set, at least on the macro side, for inflation to remain within the target band for at least 2026. If you look at the fiscal position wherever that discipline is coming from, whether it’s cost control or whatever, we’ve seen that the discipline is trickling through. And the budget position going into 2026 also typifies similar discipline,” he said.
He further explained that agricultural supply conditions have improved, particularly with recent reports of food surpluses in several markets. This, he said, is helping to temper price pressures even as the country anticipates potential upward adjustments in utility tariffs and changes to the Value Added Tax regime.
Despite the positive outlook, Mr. Boti warned that Ghana’s inflation path remains vulnerable to sudden disruptions. Global oil price volatility, unexpected exchange rate fluctuations, and geopolitical uncertainties are among the risks that could reverse the progress made.
“The typical shocks you see will be from petroleum prices thriving on the global market, from potential exchange rate shocks, and of course how these pass through to general prices on the market,” he cautioned.
Mr. Boti noted that, for now, global conditions are relatively favourable. Many major economies are cautiously easing monetary policy, reducing the risk of strong inflationary spillovers. Furthermore, oil prices are not expected to spike dramatically due to supply discipline among major producers, which helps moderate petroleum-related inflation.
He described the overall risk profile as “fairly balanced,” meaning that while shocks remain possible, the current environment largely supports continued disinflation.
For businesses and consumers, these projections offer a measure of relief. Stable inflation provides predictability in pricing, enables better long-term planning, and supports investment decisions. However, Mr. Boti stressed that maintaining this stability will require vigilance and consistency in both fiscal and monetary management.
Ghana’s ability to sustain the current path, he said, will depend on how effectively policymakers manage emerging risks, maintain discipline in public expenditure, and ensure the cedi remains broadly stable.
With inflation now more anchored than in previous years, Mr. Boti believes the economy is positioned to benefit from an extended period of price stability, provided the nation remains alert to potential shocks that could quickly alter the landscape.
