Ghana’s inflation to settle at 8% in 2026 – IMF
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Ghana’s inflation rate will stabilise around 8 per cent (±2%) in 2026, reflecting progress in the country’s ongoing economic recovery and prudent monetary management.
In a statement following the conclusion of its fifth review mission under Ghana’s USD3 billion Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, the Fund said inflation had continued to decline steadily towards the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) medium-term target range.
According to the IMF, the BoG’s monetary policy stance has been effective in reining in inflationary pressures, creating the conditions for gradual policy rate cuts without undermining price stability.
“Prudent monetary policy is expected to help re-anchor inflation expectations, noting that Ghana’s central bank has reduced its policy rate by 650 basis points to 21.5 per cent since the beginning of 2025,” the Fund stated.
The IMF attributed the improvement in inflation dynamics to tight fiscal management, enhanced policy coordination, and ongoing efforts to rebuild external buffers.
It also highlighted the introduction of a new foreign exchange operations framework by the BoG, designed to smooth excessive market volatility, enhance liquidity, and support the accumulation of foreign reserves.
The Fund noted that these measures are beginning to yield results, particularly in stabilising the cedi and restoring investor confidence.
Ghana’s inflation, which surged to over 50 per cent in early 2023 during the height of the economic crisis, has dropped sharply in recent months due to strict monetary tightening, fiscal discipline, and improved supply conditions.
The IMF said the overall macroeconomic outlook for Ghana had improved considerably, citing continued fiscal consolidation, progress in debt restructuring, and efforts to strengthen the financial sector.
“Macroeconomic stabilisation is taking hold. Fiscal discipline, debt restructuring, and improved external conditions have created space for a sustainable disinflation path,” the IMF mission noted.
A staff-level agreement was reached last week between the IMF and the Ghanaian authorities, paving the way for approval by the Fund’s Executive Board. Once approved, Ghana will receive the next tranche of funding under the ECF arrangement, estimated at USD385 million.
The IMF said continued adherence to sound fiscal and monetary policies would be crucial to maintaining disinflation momentum, rebuilding policy credibility, and sustaining economic growth in the years ahead.
