S&P Forecasts Ghana’s Public Debt to Stay Above 60% of GDP Through 2027
Global rating agency, S&P, has projected that Ghana’s public debt, including COCOBOD obligations, will remain above 60% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) until at least 2027. The New York-based agency noted that the country’s debt levels will continue to be highly sensitive to economic growth, fiscal policies, and external factors, including developments beyond the June 2026 end date of Ghana’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) program.
S&P estimates that, following the debt exchange, foreign currency debt will still account for about 66% of total government debt. This is assuming a 99% participation rate in Ghana’s Eurobond exchange, with 91% of bondholders opting to swap their holdings into discount notes.
The rating agency warned that it could downgrade Ghana’s local currency ratings to negative if the country’s fiscal or external outcomes deteriorate. However, S&P also highlighted a potential upside. If Ghana completes the restructuring of its remaining commercial debt, the agency could consider raising the long-term foreign currency rating. It added that any upgrade would be based on the sovereign’s post-restructuring credit factors, including the new terms and conditions of its external debt.
S&P also noted that it could raise Ghana’s local currency ratings if the country continues to make progress in stabilizing its public finances and boosting foreign currency reserves. In a related development, S&P assigned a ‘CCC+’ foreign currency issue rating to Ghana’s new Eurobond notes, following the completion of the government’s distressed debt exchange. The exchange, which received the approval of the required majority of Ghana’s Eurobond holders, was part of a broader effort to restructure $13.1 billion in Eurobonds and arrears. This initiative is aimed at easing external debt-service pressure and restoring the sustainability of Ghana’s public debt, in line with the ongoing Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with the IMF.
