The Price of Political Promises: Impact on Ghana’s Sociopolitical Economy

By Prof. Samuel Lartey

Introduction

In every electoral cycle, political promises emerge as the cornerstone of campaigns. These promises serve as a form of “contract” between candidates and the electorate, offering a vision of national prosperity, socio-economic development, and personal security. In Ghana’s political ecosystem, especially in the Fourth Republic (since 1992), the significance of promises has been profound. However, the reality of false political promises has had a substantial impact on the destinies of political candidates, political parties, the electoral system, and most importantly, the socio-economic conditions of Ghanaian citizens. This article explores how voters can discern between genuine and deceptive promises, the repercussions of broken promises, and the role of financial strategies in funding these promises.

Historical Context of False Promises in Ghana’s Politics

Since the establishment of the Fourth Republic, political campaigns in Ghana have been characterised by bold declarations of economic revival, infrastructural expansion, and improvements in social services such as education, healthcare, and employment. For example, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) in 2000 pledged economic transformation under the “Positive Change” mantra, while the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in 2012 centered its campaign on the “Better Ghana Agenda.”

Although some of these promises were fulfilled, others were either inadequately executed or abandoned altogether due to financial constraints or political expediency. The 2016 campaign of the NPP, led by Nana Akufo-Addo, showcased promises such as the Free Senior High School (SHS) initiative, which was successfully implemented. However, other promises, like reducing unemployment and addressing the country’s public debt burden, have faced significant challenges. For instance, Ghana’s public debt rose from GHS 120 billion in 2016 to GHS 473.2 billion by 2023 , illustrating the gap between promises and fiscal realities.

Impact on Political Candidates and Political Parties

False promises can have a twofold impact on the destinies of political candidates and their parties. On the one hand, when a political candidate delivers on their promises, their political legacy is solidified, leading to potential re-election and party growth. On the other hand, when promises remain unfulfilled, it damages the credibility of the candidate and their political party.

In 2008, NPP’s presidential candidate Nana Akufo-Addo faced backlash for the unmet promises from the previous Kufuor administration, which contributed to his defeat. In contrast, John Dramani Mahama’s failure to manage the energy crisis (dumsor) and rising public debt led to his loss in the 2016 election. These examples reveal that false promises can not only end the careers of individual politicians but can also erode the reputation and electoral viability of their parties.

Impact on the Political and Electoral System

False promises also damage the integrity of the political and electoral system. When candidates fail to deliver on their commitments, voter apathy and distrust grow. This is particularly damaging in young democracies like Ghana, where political participation is crucial for governance and accountability. Research by the Centre for Democratic Development (CDD) in 2019 revealed that only 27% of Ghanaians felt their government was responsive to their needs, while 52% felt that politicians frequently make empty promises.

Moreover, the electoral process itself becomes corrupted by a lack of faith in democratic institutions. If citizens believe that their vote is unlikely to bring about real change, it encourages transactional politics, where votes are sold for short-term benefits such as cash, food, or employment opportunities rather than for long-term national development. This further undermines democratic principles and fosters a cycle of poor governance.

Socioeconomic Impact on the Citizenry

The most profound impact of false promises is felt by the Ghanaian citizenry. Promises that go unfulfilled, particularly those regarding job creation, poverty alleviation, and infrastructural development, leave citizens in a perpetual state of economic uncertainty. For example, promises related to job creation by various governments have often been overstated, with youth unemployment rates remaining high at 13.4% as of 2023 . Similarly, promises to stabilise the Ghanaian cedi and reduce inflation have been difficult to meet. By 2023, inflation stood at 31.7%, leading to increased cost of living and reduced purchasing power for citizens .

In addition, the implementation of tax policies that contradict campaign promises often leaves citizens disillusioned. For instance, the introduction of the Electronic Transfer Levy (E-Levy) in 2022 contradicted the NPP’s promise of reducing taxes, further straining the already burdened lower and middle classes.

Deciphering False Promises

While it may be difficult for the average voter to decipher the sincerity behind political promises, several strategies can assist:

1. Track Record and Feasibility:

Voters should assess the track record of political parties and candidates. Have they made similar promises in the past, and did they deliver? For instance, the Free SHS initiative had been part of NPP’s promises since 2008 but was only realised after several election cycles. Understanding the feasibility of a promise, based on the country’s financial and economic position, can also help voters make more informed choices.

2. Scrutinise Funding Strategies:

Many promises remain undelivered due to inadequate funding or unrealistic financial planning. Voters should be critical of how candidates propose to finance their promises. Will the government take on more debt? Will it raise taxes? A detailed funding strategy is a key indicator of a promise that can be delivered.

3. Analyse Economic Indicators: Promises to reduce inflation, stabilise the currency, or increase employment must be analysed against existing economic indicators. For instance, promises made in 2020 to reduce public debt seemed unrealistic, given that the public debt-to-GDP ratio had already hit 76.1% .

4. Third-Party Analyses:

Independent institutions such as think tanks, media outlets, and financial institutions can provide non-partisan analyses of political manifestos. Engaging with these resources can give voters a clearer picture of the plausibility of campaign promises.

Financial Cost of Deciphering Promises

Financial data plays a crucial role in evaluating the credibility of political promises. For instance, if a political party promises to build hospitals, voters should ask: “What is the projected cost? What will the impact on the national budget be?” If the country is already grappling with a debt-to-GDP ratio above 70%, the likelihood of such promises being realized becomes slim without significant financial reforms. By cross-referencing political promises with the national budget, public debt figures, and GDP growth rates, voters can better understand the feasibility of these pledges.

Conclusion False political promises in Ghana not only damage the careers of political candidates and the reputation of political parties but also erode the foundations of the electoral system and hurt the socio-economic fabric of the nation. Citizens bear the brunt of these unfulfilled promises, facing economic instability and diminishing trust in governance. By analysing track records, scrutinising funding strategies, and engaging with economic data, the Ghanaian electorate can become better equipped to distinguish between false promises and well-intentioned commitments. In doing so, they can play a critical role in shaping the future of Ghana’s political and socio-economic landscape.