Achieving 2026 Revenue Targets Hinges on Rigorous Tax Reforms – Deloitte
By Praisebell Rosemond Larbi
Accounting and advisory firm Deloitte Ghana has cautioned that the government’s ability to meet its 2026 revenue targets will depend heavily on the successful implementation of rigorous tax reforms and the preservation of macroeconomic stability. The firm made this assessment in its review of the 2026 Budget, highlighting both domestic and external risks to the country’s revenue prospects.
Deloitte noted that volatile global oil and gas prices, driven by recent geopolitical tensions, have continued to weigh on Ghana’s petroleum receipts, which remain a significant component of public revenue. These external pressures, compounded by reduced local production, pose short- to medium-term risks to Ghana’s budget performance.
“Volatile global oil and gas prices resulting from recent geopolitical tensions, together with some local factors including reduced production, have negatively impacted oil and gas revenue receipts to the government. This phenomenon presents a risk in the short and medium term to Ghana’s overall budget performance. Going forward, the government should consider deploying incentives (tax or otherwise) to boost production and private sector investment in the oil and gas sector,” Deloitte stressed.
The advisory firm recommended that the government explore hedging strategies to cushion the impact of volatile international oil prices and accelerate efforts to diversify into non-oil sectors, ensuring a more resilient and balanced revenue stream over the long term.
Reform of the VAT System
Deloitte described the government’s planned reforms of the Value Added Tax (VAT) system as a “sound policy response” to concerns raised by private sector players during the National Economic Forum (NEF) and other engagements. However, the firm stressed that the effectiveness of these reforms will rely on broadening the tax base, enhancing administrative efficiency, easing compliance procedures, and enforcing the rules consistently.
These measures, it noted, are essential to safeguarding revenue, promoting fairness, and reinforcing Ghana’s broader economic transformation agenda.
Deloitte also evaluated the Modified Taxation Scheme, introduced in 2015 and adjusted in 2022 to improve compliance among SMEs, especially within the informal sector. It acknowledged the progress made but observed that the scheme’s overall impact remains limited due to persistent informality and low taxpayer awareness.
To strengthen the scheme’s effectiveness, Deloitte urged the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) to intensify taxpayer education, streamline digital tax platforms, and maintain continuous engagement with SME stakeholders to enhance compliance and adoption.
2026 Revenue Outlook
The government projects total revenue and grants for 2026 at GH¢268.1 billion, up from the GH¢229.9 billion budgeted for 2025. The increase is expected to be supported by improved revenue measures equivalent to 0.8% of GDP.
Tax revenue is projected at GH¢223.9 billion, representing 83.5% of total revenue and grants, while Non-Tax Revenue is estimated at GH¢26.7 billion, equivalent to about 10% of domestic revenue.
