Fitch Signals Possible Extension of Fuel Relief Measures

Government may be compelled to extend temporary fuel price relief measures beyond their scheduled expiry this week if international crude oil prices continue to climb, according to global ratings agency Fitch Ratings.

In its latest assessment on Ghana, Fitch indicated that the intervention could remain in place provided the fiscal burden stays below 0.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per month and is balanced by savings in other areas of government expenditure.

The agency’s comments formed part of a broader review in which it upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from ‘B-’ to ‘B’, while assigning the country a Positive Outlook — a move that reflects improving macroeconomic conditions and stronger fiscal performance.

Fitch noted that sustaining the relief measures may become necessary to contain the inflationary impact of rising petroleum prices on households and businesses.

The government on April 16, 2026, introduced temporary interventions to cushion consumers against increases in fuel prices triggered by higher crude oil prices on the international market. Under the arrangement, the state absorbed GH¢2 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol.

The measures, which took effect immediately, were initially expected to run for one month and are therefore due to expire on May 16, 2026.

Announcing the intervention at the time, Government Communications Minister Felix Kwakye Ofosu said the policy was aimed at easing the pressure of rising ex-pump prices on transport costs and economic activity.

“Government remains committed to maintaining price stability, protecting livelihoods, and supporting Ghana’s economic recovery in the face of external shocks,” the statement said.

Fresh concerns over fuel prices have emerged following renewed tensions on the global oil market. Brent crude prices have reportedly climbed to about US$105 per barrel after reports that US President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with a proposed peace arrangement involving Iran.

ent is expected to feed into the next pricing window beginning May 16, 2026, with industry projections pointing to further increases in petroleum product prices if global market pressures persist.

Current projections suggest petrol prices could rise marginally by between 0.10 per cent and 0.51 per cent per litre, while diesel prices may increase by nearly 6.77 per cent. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are also expected to rise by between 7.24 per cent and 10.41 per cent.

Industry analysts attribute the anticipated rise in LPG prices partly to delayed adjustments under the current tender arrangement, which had previously shielded consumers from earlier international price increases.

Beyond fuel prices, Fitch expects inflationary pressures to pick up gradually toward the end of the year as higher crude oil prices feed into the domestic economy. Nonetheless, the agency maintained that inflation is likely to continue moderating on an annual average basis through 2026 and 2027.

“We anticipate Bank of Ghana will remain prudent and pause its easing cycle to prevent inflation risks from materialising, after a cumulative 1,400bp monetary policy rate cut between July 2025 and March 2026, to 14%,” Fitch said.

On Ghana’s fiscal outlook, Fitch projected further improvement in the country’s debt position, forecasting public debt to decline to 46 per cent of GDP by 2027 — below the projected median of 51 per cent for countries rated ‘B’.

“This follows a 21pp fall in 2025 driven by a sharp appreciation of the cedi and robust fiscal consolidation,” the report added.

The ratings agency also expressed optimism about Ghana’s growth prospects, projecting average GDP growth of five per cent through 2027, supported by increased gold production, easing inflation, stronger consumer confidence and lower borrowing costs.

“We forecast the current account surplus will remain strong in 2026, after a record surplus of 8.2% of GDP in 2025, supported by our assumption that gold prices remain high this year,” the report said.