World Bank Projects Crude Oil to Average $60 per Barrel in 2026
Crude oil prices are expected to average $60 per barrel in 2026, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
This represents a drop from the projected $68 per barrel in 2025, a development analysts say could help ease global inflationary pressures.
The report attributes the expected decline to moderating global oil consumption and rising supply levels. Prices are, however, forecast to rebound slightly to $65 per barrel in 2027, as the market rebalances and low 2026 prices discourage excess production.
These projections, the World Bank noted, are based on assumptions of stable OPEC+ output, a well-supplied market, no major escalation in geopolitical tensions, and continued weak demand growth compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Global oil supply is expected to rise significantly in both 2025 and 2026 as new production comes onstream. Output is projected to increase by 3.0 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 2.9%, to reach 106.1 mb/d in 2025, a new record before climbing further to 108.5 mb/d in 2026.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), nearly half of the 2025 increase will come from OPEC+ countries due to higher production targets. Additional supply growth in 2026 is expected mainly from non-OPEC producers.
Meanwhile, global oil consumption is forecast to expand only modestly by around 0.7 mb/d annually, according to the IEA, or 1.1 mb/d as projected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The IEA further noted that China and India will account for about a quarter of global consumption growth in 2025 and two-fifths in 2026. However, China’s demand growth is expected to slow as the adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles accelerates, while demand in advanced economies remains largely flat.
