Africa’s Workforce on Track to Surpass China’s by 2034 – ISS Report

Africa’s working-age population stood at an estimated 576 million in 2023, a figure projected to nearly double by 2043, according to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) report, “Work/Jobs – Thematic Futures.”

This rapid expansion means Africa’s labor force is on track to surpass China’s around 2034, positioning the continent at the center of future global labor markets.

This large, youthful demographic potential is increasingly attracting investors and labor-intensive industries. As wages continue to rise in China and India, many economic players are beginning to view Africa as a competitive emerging destination, driven by relatively moderate production costs and a gradually improving business environment across several nations.

However, the report cautions that the sheer size of the workforce alone will not guarantee an economic advantage. The quality of human capital remains a critical concern. In 2023, the average African adult had 6.8 years of schooling, lagging behind India at 7.6 years and China at 8.9 years. Projections for 2043 show this gap persisting, with African adults expected to reach 7.8 years of schooling, compared to 9.2 in India and 10.4 in China.

Authors Jakkie Cilliers and Blessing Chipanda emphasize that without significant investments in education and health, productivity could remain lower than in other major economies. This deficit, they argue, would limit the continent’s competitive potential in the age of digitalization and automation.

Driven by Africa’s strong economic growth and a rising middle class, with six out of the ten fastest-growing economies being African, investing in the education sector offers a unique chance to accelerate progress in human development and enhance community resilience.

Sandrine Henton, Managing Director at EG Capital, sheds light on how these demographic shifts coupled with strong economic growth in Africa are creating a fertile ground for EdTech solutions. With 40% of the population in Africa (1.4 billion) currently under 15 years old and an additional 100 million children expected by 2050, Africa’s education needs are rapidly expanding.

According to the Mastercard Foundation’s report, Young Women in Africa: Agents of Economic Growth and Transformation by 2030, increasing the economic productivity of young women alone could unlock $287 billion in economic value, generating 23 million jobs by 2030. This projection emphasizes the crucial role education will play in driving economic growth across the continent and ensuring that no one gets left behind. Henton underscores how these shifts, combined with Africa’s tech-savvy youth, present an unparalleled opportunity for the growth of EdTech solutions.

Historically, Africa’s education sector has been largely driven by government expenditure and policy. However, recent years have seen an increasing flow of private sector investment into the sector. Henton highlights the growing role of private investors in addressing the significant gaps between the demand for education and the available supply. The acquisition of South African EdTech startup GetSmarter by 2U for $103 million underscores the rising global interest in African digital education solutions.

With a youthful population, rising demand for digital learning solutions, and increasing private sector involvement, Africa’s education sector is ripe for investment at the growth stage, as well as supporting early-stage innovative models